Security Intelligence

In this podcast we look at the trajectory of the conflict in Afghanistan ahead of the upcoming withdrawal of US troops, as well as what this will mean for organisations operating in the country.

Israel and Hamas are engaged in the most intense military confrontations since 2014. In this podcast we look at the near, medium and long term impacts of this latest bout of fighting, as well as outline forecasts, indicators and trigger points for security professionals to monitor.

Anti-coup protests in Myanmar have now entered an even more violent phase with some early signs of protests escalating into an armed uprising. The military, which seems unlikely to compromise on its stance, has progressively escalated its violent suppression of activists. In this podcast, we discuss how these multiple crises are likely to unfold over the coming year, and what this will mean for organisations operating in Myanmar.

Lebanon has entered a dangerous phase of its political and economic collapse. Soaring prices and shortages of food staples, basic goods, fuel and power are just some of the issues that the Lebanese are contending with, all amid a barely controlled Covid-19 outbreak. In this podcast, we discuss how these multiple crises are likely to unfold over the coming year, and what this will mean for organisations operating in Lebanon and the wider Levant.    

The conditions for a regime-threatening crisis in Russia are the most pronounced they have been for 20 years. Aleksey Navalny has galvanised the opposition, harnessing public anger at poor governance. The current protests have also come at a time of other mounting foreign and domestic pressures on the Kremlin.  Russia enters 2021 at its most isolated internationally. It is involved in four conflicts, and is underwriting two foreign regimes financially. It is also facing encroachment by China and Turkey in its near abroad, and a new more-hostile US administration. President Putin must navigate several flashpoints this year to keep his grip on power.  In this podcast, Risk Advisory looks at the growing challenges facing President Putin, and the implications for stability and security in Russia

The rollout of Covid-19 vaccines around the world presents prospects of returning to some semblance of normality in the coming months. But the rollout is likely to be uneven, slow and highly politicised. They are also likely to be met with opposition, scepticism and resistance, in both developing and advanced economies alike. In this podcast, we discuss the near term outlook for mass vaccinations and what kind of risks and decision-making challenges for risk managers these may bring. 

Strategic Outlook is our annual global forecast for those whose decisions and responsibilities hinge upon geopolitical and strategic security risks. Each year it provides hundreds of forecasts, early warning indicators, scenarios, and thematic assessments to help organisations plan and anticipate the year ahead. In this podcast two of our most senior intelligence and analysis directors discuss some of the key global themes, forecasts, and risks that will feature in Strategic Outlook 2021. This is ahead of its formal release in the New Year.  

This podcast is a recording of a webinar that took place on 4 November 2020, the day after the US presidential elections. A dispute over the results looks likely following polling day. We discuss whether such a disagreement will evolve into a broader crisis, and to what effect. And we will identify states that will be central to any subsequent legal challenges.  We provide assessments of where protests after the polls are most likely to take place, as well as where the potential for civil disquiet and extremist violence is highest. This will draw on our monitoring of activist and extremist channels online.

In this podcast, we provide a brief overview of recent events in Lebanon and share some forecasts for how we expect events to unfold, and what these mean for the wider region.

This is the thirteenth year Risk Advisory has partnered with Aon to produce the Terrorism & Political Violence Risk Map by providing source data and expert analysis. This podcast is a recording of Aon’s 2020 Risk Maps COVID-19 webinar which took place on 6 August 2020, featuring comments from Aon, Risk Advisory, and Continuum Economics.

In this podcast, we look at the diverse movements and ideologies emerging within the radical right in the US, and the different risks these pose to businesses and the state. We provide forecasts for how these movements are likely to respond to ongoing anti-racism protests and a presidential election in November.

In this final podcast of the trilogy, we look at what will be the likely challenges of leading organisations out and back to business as usual. In the first two podcasts, we asked what defines an ‘adversity situation’ and what leadership and management techniques are needed in adversity?” In this podcast, we bring these themes together and apply them in the specific context of now – how do we lead in a time of a pandemic and the cascades of impacts that are coming with it?

In this podcast, with a clearer sense of what adversity is and isn't, we ask “Are different leadership and management techniques needed in adversity?” This is the second in a series of three podcasts on the theme ‘Leading in Adversity’, which we have released as part of a broader effort to support our clients as they manage the myriad impacts and difficult decision making challenges of the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic.

In this podcast we look at how, as a leader, one can objectively gauge when an organisation is in an adversity situation (or heading towards one), and act accordingly at the right time. This is the first in a series of three podcasts on the theme ‘Leading in Adversity’, which we have released as part of a broader effort to support our clients as they manage the myriad impacts and difficult decision making challenges of the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. 

The coronavirus pandemic has changed the world in a matter of weeks. It's presented leadership teams with difficult & business critical decisions on risk management. Questions about what kind of a world will emerge after the pandemic passes & what the long tail risks will be. A global recession appears inevitable & unlikely that the economy, states, society & politics will be the same again. This podcast looks to the future to help think through future scenarios for strategic planning & risk management.

A new precedent of direct military action has been set in the long-running confrontation between Iran and the US in the Middle East. Despite both sides engaging in tit-for-tat direct military action in the past week, they have appeared to step back from the brink of conflict. This podcast will address key questions clients are asking us, including: what are the strategic intentions of both sides? How have security risks in the region changed? Has the crisis changed geopolitical risks?

Following a withdrawal of US troops, Turkish forces entered northeastern Syria on 9 October. A ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdish forces appears to be largely holding. But the arrival of Syrian and Russian troops in the northeast will probably hinder Turkey's plans there. In this podcast, we look at the impact of the offensive on security and business operations in Turkey and other regional countries. And we discuss the outlook for the wider Syrian conflict.

Jihadist groups are becoming more active in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. And Al-Qaeda has shown its ability to target foreign interests in the Sahel and West Africa. Regional counter-terrorism efforts appear to be doing little to curb the activities of jihadist groups. And countries beyond the Sahel - such as Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal are also exposed. This podcast will give our outlook for the effectiveness of security forces in preventing attacks and degrading the capabilities of jihadist groups.

In this podcast we outline the most probable Triggers for a US-Iran escalation, and discuss the regional implications for businesses across the region. Attacks last month against oil infrastructure and vessels in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as the evacuation of US diplomatic staff from Iraq, have already shown the wider-reaching implications of these tensions.

Moeletsi Mbeki - deputy chairman of SAIIA and a prominent South African political commentator, businessman, and former trade union official gives his insights into what the outcome of the polls means for President Ramaphosa's reformist agenda. Leveraging his extensive political and business experience in the country, he will provide his perspectives on the investment and operating environments in South Africa.