Security Intelligence

The upcoming presidential, parliamentary and state-level elections come amid signs of deteriorating security in Nigeria. Our lead sub-Saharan Africa analyst, Tom Murphy will discuss the likelihood of politically and ethnically-motivated violence and unrest around the elections. We will also give our forecasts for the outcome of the polls, and their implications for businesses operating in Nigeria. The content of this podcast mirrors that of a briefing that we held at our offices on 16 January.

Jair Bolsonaro's victory marks a significant shift in Brazil's political landscape. In this podcast, our lead analyst for Latin America discusses our forecast for how Bolsonaro's first year is likely to play out, and what impact this will have on operational and security risks in the country.

Bhavin Vyas - lead analyst for South Asia in Risk Advisory's Intelligence & Analysis department - discusses our forecast for the outcome of the Pakistan parliamentary elections on 25 July, and the associated security and crisis risks. Bhavin also assesses what political, security and business challenges the next government in Pakistan is likely to face in the coming year.

The World Cup will take place at a time of heightened tension between Russia and the West. This is unlikely to improve before the tournament. Security risks appear to be as much of a concern as the risk of state agencies targeting foreign nationals attending the event. Hugo Crosthwaite - lead analyst for Eurasia in Risk Advisory's Intelligence & Analysis practice, discusses security risks around the tournament, with a particular focus on hooliganism, terrorism, crime and the threat state agencies pose.

Thomas Murphy - lead analyst for sub-Saharan Africa in Risk Advisory's Intelligence & Analysis department - discusses our political and security outlook for Ethiopia.

Our lead North Africa analyst, Stephanie Karra, discusses our forecast for the outcome of the presidential election in Egypt and the associated security risks, following a recent trip to the country.

Tim Powdrill - senior analyst for Asia Pacific in Risk Advisory's Intelligence & Analysis department - discusses the latest developments concerning North Korea's nuclear weapons programme, and the potential risk of conflict. He also shares assessments on various scenarios for crisis planning for the Winter Olympics and beyond.

North Korea has been a subject of interest for Risk Advisory clients over the last six months. We've been commonly asked to forecast the likelihood that the crisis will escalate into conflict.  In this podcast, Bhavin Vyas speaks to Tim Powdrill, lead analyst for Asia Pacific, in our Intelligence & Analysis practice to discuss the likely impact of escalation, what companies can do to prepare for the range of outcomes, and identify at what point a decision to evacuate by commercial means should be taken before it is too late.

The security and political situation in Iraq is changing - again. Iraqi and Kurdish forces - variously backed by the US and Iran - have retaken Islamic-State held territory. With a common enemy routed from the battlefield, long-existing divisions within the alliance are resurfacing. We will discuss, the implications of these developments, to assess the future security and political environment in Iraq and Iraqi Kurdish region.

In this podcast, we discuss the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, where the government appears determined to hold onto power, whatever the cost. It analyses the political and security outlook for the coming months - in particular, the implications of a process to rewrite the constitution that began on 30 July.

In this podcast, we will discuss the current political situation in Pakistan, and its implications for security and stability in the country. With the prime minister and his family embroiled in an investigation into their wealth, we will give our forecast on the political stability in Pakistan.

In this podcast, we will discuss the current political situation in Libya, and its implications for security and stability in the country. With fighting still ongoing in several parts of the country, we will also give our security and political forecasts.

In this podcast, we will discuss the likelihood of a recurrence of politically and ethnically-motivated violence and unrest around the Kenyan elections. We will also give our forecasts for the outcome of the polls as well as the implications for Kenya, and for East Africa more broadly.

In this podcast, we will provide an outlook for the threat of terrorism in Europe. We will discuss how the tactics and targeting of Islamists, anarchists and Irish nationalists vary. We will also assess the threat that they pose to businesses.

Risk Advisory's Group Chief Executive Officer, Bill Waite, interviews the Head of the Serious Fraud Office, David Green CB QC. 

In this podcast, Belgrade-based journalist and business risk analyst Zoran Kusovac will talk about the practical challenges of working in the region and how to navigate them. Zoran is a former geopolitical analyst at Jane's and bureau chief at Fox News. Countries in the Western Balkans have presented many investment opportunities with most offering affordable assets, skilled labour forces, competitive operating costs and low tax regimes. Investors and compliance professionals have been faced with numerous challenges, including a haphazard public record landscape, dysfunctional judicial systems and corruption.