Sounds Strategic

This week, Meia and Antonio are joined by Nigel Gould-Davies, the new IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia and Editor of Strategic Survey, for a discussion on how Russia has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.Despite a slow initial response, the Russian government has started enacting stricter controls in an effort to control the outbreak of COVID-19 in the country. However, Putin has remained notably absent in the public management of the crisis and Nigel explores why Putin is instead delegating this key task to trusted allies.While the reliability of official Russian statistics on the extent of the COVID-19 outbreak may be in doubt, Nigel notes the real concerns that this crisis, coupled with a serious drop in the price of oil and gas, could have an even more detrimental impact on Russia’s economy than the 2008 financial crash.Finally, Meia, Antonio and Nigel discuss the methods and motivations behind persistent Russian efforts to use the pandemic to sow further divisions among Western states. Nige

In this episode, Mahsa Rouhi and Emile Hokayem join Meia Nouwens for a discussion on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected countries in the Middle East.Iran has been one of the most severely affected countries in the world, with over 3,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 (as of 2 April 2020). Mahsa explains how the Iranian public has responded to this crisis and why the combination of US sanctions and regime negligence has worsened the outbreak in the country.Conflict-afflicted countries, such as Syria and Yemen, also stand to be gravely affected by this pandemic for a series of reasons, including the lack of medical facilities after years of conflict. Emile explores how this pandemic presents a ‘cascade of problems’ for these countries and will likely exacerbate existing insecurities, especially among vulnerable IDP and refugee populations.Both Mahsa and Emile speak on the mixed role non-state groups have had in combating the virus and why a lack of trust in state institutions has led to weakened public adher

In this episode of Sounds Strategic, Antonio and Meia are joined by David Kilcullen, Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales in Canberra, and former special adviser to the US Secretary of State between 2007 and 2009. Over the past five years, the world has witnessed some of the largest city-based battles since World War Two. The sieges of Mosul in Iraq and Aleppo in Syria indicate that urban warfighting is to become a key feature of future conflicts. As a result, David argues, traditional Western military doctrine needs to adapt to meet the new challenges of asymmetric urban conflict.David also discusses why the very concept of ‘war’ may become an area of diplomatic tension as China and the West disagree on what constitutes ‘war-like behaviour’, even in peace time.Finally, Antonio, Meia and David explore some of the positive steps NATO has taken to integrate a whole-of-society approach to modern inter-state competition; the possible hazards of the Trump administra

James Hackett, Senior Fellow for Defence and Military Analysis, and Tom Waldwyn, Research Associate for Defence and Military Analysis, join Meia and Antonio for this episode to discuss the key trends in defence procurement and capabilities identified in the latest edition of The Military Balance, the Institute’s annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics. In recent years, China’s military shipbuilding output has consistently dwarfed that of other countries. Tom and James explain why China requires such an extensive military modernisation programme and identify the practical limitations these new Chinese capabilities may face.James also discusses the re-emergence of peer-to-peer and near-peer competition among the advanced militaries of the US, China and Russia, and what this means for modern international relations.Tom and James also explore the processes and challenges of open-source investigations, how they became interested in military analysis and their reading recommendations

Sir Tom Beckett, Executive Director of IISS−Middle East, joins podcast hosts Meia Nouwens and Antônio Sampaio for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Tom, Meia and Antônio discuss how countries in the Middle East have reacted to United States President Donald Trump’s proposed plan for Israeli−Palestinian peace. Their discussion also highlights why the peace plan might be difficult to implement. Tom gives a short description of the history of the Middle East and examines the role of non-state armed groups in the region, highlighting the recently published IISS Strategic Dossier Iran’s Networks of Influence in the Middle East. Tom, Meia and Antônio also discuss the role of the US and its policy position towards the region at a time when Middle Eastern countries are looking to diversify their relations for the sake of economic protection. Finally, Tom and Meia briefly touch on China’s interests in the region and Chinese arms exports to the Middle East.We hope you enjoy the episode and don’t forget to follow, rate a

In the first episode of the new season of Sounds Strategic, Robert Ward welcomes his new co-hosts Meia Nouwens and Antônio Sampaio on to the podcast.During the episode they discuss the recent election results in Taiwan, the protests in Hong Kong and how the recent coronavirus outbreak has impacted China’s economy and Taiwan. Taken together, these crises have brought new challenges for China’s president, Xi Jinping, suggesting that 2020 may prove to be an especially difficult year for the Chinese leader.New co-hosts Meia and Antônio also reveal their most challenging piece of work at the IISS and what their fantasy research project would be.We hope you enjoy the episode and don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe Sounds Strategic wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In her final episode as host of Sounds Strategic, Kori Schake is joined by the new director of the IISS Geo-economics and Strategy programme and Japan Chair, Robert Ward.During the episode, Kori and Robert discuss how ageing demographics and economic stagnation severely undercut the optimism that surrounded hopes for Japan’s economic future in the late 1980s. Robert goes on to assess whether China risks following Japan’s path or if there are sufficient differences between the two East Asian countries for China’s economy to continue its growth into the 21st century. Kori and Robert also highlight the vital importance of geo-economics as a means of understanding contemporary international relations, diplomacy and statecraft, and the possible consequences of the increasing bifurcation of the global economy. Finally, Robert explains why the idea that China is carefully following a detailed hundred-year plan towards world domination is the myth that he would most want to dispel from the popular discourse. See acas

Bill Emmott, Chairman of the IISS Trustees, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.From President Trump’s questioning of traditional US allies and commitments, to growing Russian and Chinese influence in international and regional affairs, 2019 has seen a further erosion of the liberal world order established after the Second World War. In this end-of-year special, Bill Emmott and Kori Schake discuss the challenges the liberal rules-based order has faced over the course of 2019, both from within and without. Bill argues that middle powers such as Japan, France and South Korea may have to adapt to an emerging ‘G2’ world where US–China competition determines relations between states. Kori and Bill also discuss the differences between the regimes of Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Xi Jinping’s China, South Korean and Japanese politics, as well as the need for reinvigorated German leadership in the EU.Date of recording: 9 December 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.

In this special episode, Kori Schake, Deputy Director-General of the IISS, leads a panel of experts to reflect on the major themes of the debate at the IISS Manama Dialogue 2019.Opening the discussion is John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, who addresses the changes to the political geography of the Middle East already underway and what they mean for the myriad of internationalised challenges the region is currently facing.Hasan Alhasan, IISS Associate Fellow, notes the deepening geo-economic relationship between the Gulf and Asia, and especially China and India. One challenge Hasan foresees is how Gulf states will effectively convert these burgeoning economic relationships into greater diplomatic and security support from Asian countries. Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, Emile Hokayem, stresses the need to avoid complacency at a time of intense instability in the region. For Emile, battlefield dynamics continue to determine outcomes far more than political processes. Until the v

In this special episode recorded at the IISS Manama Dialogue 2019, Kori Schake is joined by Tamara Cofman Wittes, Senior Fellow at the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, and Maggie Feldman-Piltch, Founder and Managing Director of #NatSecGirlSquad, for a fascinating and wide-ranging conversation.Recent popular protests in Lebanon and Iraq have shaken the Middle East. Such political turmoil suggests a deep level of dissatisfaction with the status quo in these, and many other, countries in the region. In the cases of Iraq and Syria, government mismanagement and corruption have been perpetuated by external interference by either Iran or Russia, or both. For Maggie, Tamara and Kori, such interference has been, in part, enabled by a general retreat from the region by the US that has allowed emerging powers such as Russia, Iran and even China, to flex their soft power credentials. As Maggie and Tamara argue, the rise of these revisionist powers has profound implications not only for regional

In this special episode of Sounds Strategic, John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, and Kori Schake have an in-depth discussion about the new IISS Strategic Dossier, Iran’s Networks of Influence in the Middle East, and what its findings mean for understanding security in the Middle East today.As the report shows, Iran has meticulously spread its influence across the Middle East since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. It has done this through a huge variety of relationships with state and non-state groups. It has taken advantage of instability in Iraq following the US invasion in 2003 and has become a vital guarantor for the Assad regime in Syria. In Lebanon and Yemen, it has partnered with non-state groups to further its own strategic objectives. Looking at these networks collectively, as the IISS Strategic Dossier does, it is clear that Iran has curated a comprehensive strategic ‘sovereign capability’ that has been carefully resourced, financed and supported by the Irania

Dr Greg Austin, Senior Fellow for Cyber, Space and Future Conflict, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.As the race to roll out 5G intensifies between China and the United States, Greg and Kori discuss China’s use of cyber espionage and private companies in pursuit of its geopolitical interests and the effect it has on China’s reputation. Greg explains the Cyber, Space and Future Conflict’s new methodology to assess states’ capabilities to use cyber as an offensive weapon, exploring the initial findings from a case study on China. Greg discusses how the “cyber industrial complex” can be understood as a web of political, economic, industrial and scientific relationships and assets, noting that the ICT sector provides a majority of the US’ GDP. He debunks the common conception that China is a leader in cybersecurity, noting that China’s cyber defences are weaker than those of the US and its allies. He highlights that China is actually reliant on US companies to provide cyber protection. Gr

Nigel Inkster, IISS Senior Adviser, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.With the rivalry between the US and China set to become the defining feature of international politics in the 21st century, Nigel Inkster gives context to the geopolitical competition that lies at its heart. Nigel emphasises the important role technology will play in allowing great powers to project their power internationally in the future. He argues that this brings new significance to the Huawei affair and wider US–China trade disputes. Fundamentally, China views the post-World War international order as no longer fit for purpose. It is therefore looking to foster an alternative world order that is more in line with its own political objectives and priorities. Nigel and Kori discuss what the possible features of this Sino-centric world order would be and the profound importance technological innovation around 5G will play in determining who will lead the world in the next century.Recommended Reading: Richard McG

Dr Benjamin Rhode, Research Fellow for Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of IISS Strategic Comments, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Transatlantic relations have long been considered a relatively stable area of international diplomacy. However, the realities of the Trump administration in the US and Brexit in the UK have brought new volatility to transatlantic affairs. Dr Schake and Dr Rhode discuss the effects of this new instability in the relationships that have traditionally formed the foundation of the liberal world order. They also explore the emerging crisis in the US administration over President Trump’s call with President Zelensky of Ukraine and the rationality behind French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent overtures to Russia. Dr Rhode also highlights the importance of political culture as a means of understanding and predicting public reactions to domestic and foreign policy. Dr Schake and Dr Rhode agree that historical context often informs how national policy is formed

Pierre Noël, Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.The recent attacks on the Abqaiq oil processing facility removed half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production from the market instantly. In this episode, Pierre and Kori discuss the short- and long-term impact of these attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and what they may mean for both Saudi Arabia’s budget and regional energy security.Pierre also explores the persistent misconceptions that surround concerns over energy independence and dependency. For Pierre, assessing the energy markets that underpin energy supply is a far better means of measuring a country’s, or in the case of the EU, a continent’s energy security.Reading recommendations:Morris Adelman, The Economics of Petroleum Supply, (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1993)David JC MacKay, Sustainable Energy – without the hot air, (Cambridge: UIT Cambridge, 2009)Data Visualisation:Richard Newell and Daniel Raimi, ‘The New Climate Math: Energ

Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Conflict, Security and Development, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.How to provide robust security in rapidly growing cities has been a persistent challenge for policymakers, especially as more people are expected to move into cities throughout the 21st century. In this episode, Antônio explores the case of Rio de Janeiro, a city that has experienced extreme violence for decades as a result of state neglect and gang activity. Although Rio remains one of the most violent cities in the world, Antônio details some of the successful policies that have brought back a degree of stability and state control in the favelas, unofficial suburbs that have been the traditional heartland of Brazilian gangs.Most importantly, the policy successes and failures that Antônio highlights in his research in Rio have important lessons and applications for urban security in other cities around the world, from countering cartels in Mexico to reintroducing state control

Amanda Lapo, Research Analyst for Defence and Military Analysis, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.The political and economic crisis in Venezuela has caused a humanitarian emergency, with millions leaving the country. Amanda and Kori discuss the internal and international dynamics that have enabled the Maduro regime to survive despite US sanctions, huge public protests and economic collapse. In the episode, Amanda assesses Russia’s support for the Maduro regime to date and the wider impact recent military agreements between Russia and Venezuela may have on regional security. Kori and Amanda also discuss how the Maduro regime has ensured the loyalty of the Venezuelan military through economic incentives and Cuban assistance. Amanda reinforces the extent Maduro insiders have been disconnected from regular Venezuelan citizens and warns external intervention would likely only exacerbate such differences. Reading recommendations:Michael Reid, Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin

Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Research Fellow for Defence Economics and Procurement, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.The humanitarian crisis in Yemen as a result of the Saudi-led intervention, has brought unprecedented pressure on many European states to change their policies toward the export of military equipment. Lucie and Kori begin this episode with a discussion on why some European states have been more resistant than others in adopting these changes. Their conversation expands to recent efforts to develop European defence cooperation. In a challenge to the conventional wisdom on the topic, Lucie suggests that it is in fact France that is the blocking state in furthering intra-European arms development due to its stance on arms exports. Finally, Lucie explains the ground-breaking research, co-authored with Meia Nouwens, that enabled a detailed assessment of China’s growing arms manufacturing industry. This research has become so influential that it now contributes to Defense News’ a

Nicholas Crawford, Research Associate for Conflict, Security and Development, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Nicholas and Kori discuss China’s lending to African states, touching on the IMF’s recently approved bailout package for the Republic of Congo and its implications. With a research focus on conflict and development, Nicholas is perfectly placed to explore China’s actions across the developing world within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. He debunks the idea that China engages in debt-trap diplomacy and deliberately lends money with the goal of trapping other countries, highlighting the economic and political risks that China faces in this situation. With debt levels rising in many countries across the world, Nicholas advocates for greater transparency from China in order to help provide more effective debt relief. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival, talks with Dr Kori Schake in this episode of Sounds Strategic.With the resignation of the British Ambassador to the US Sir Kim Darroch weighing heavily on the conversation, Dana and Kori discuss the impact of the episode on the UK’s ‘special relationship’ with the US, and how this may change in the future with a post-Brexit ‘Global Britain’, potentially separate from the EU.Dana challenges the assumed direct link between a state’s willingness to use force and its international credibility. As Kori and he explore, this issue came into stark focus with the aborted US strikes against Iran in retaliation for the downing of an unmanned surveillance drone in June 2019.As both an academic and editor of the IISS journal, Survival, Dana also speaks on his other area of expertise, the Israel–US relationship. As a topic covered in his latest book, Our Separate Ways: The Struggle for the Future of the US–Israel Alliance