Sounds Strategic

The recent dispute between Greece and Turkey has again raised questions around the sustainability of the NATO Alliance. However, one of the Alliance’s loudest critics in recent years has been US President Donald Trump, despite the United States' critical role within it. But are such criticisms political rhetoric or are they part of a wider strategic recalculation by the US as its national security concerns outside of Europe multiply?Meia Nouwens discusses this question with IISS–Americas Executive Director EJ Herold and Research Fellow Henry Boyd in this episode of Sounds Strategic. As Henry and EJ explain, there is increasing evidence that the US Department of Defense considers China, rather than a resurgent Russia, as its greatest strategic challenge for the foreseeable future. They also discuss how this rebalancing of US strategic priorities towards the Asia-Pacific will adversely affect the European member states of NATO, especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. We hope you enjoy li

This week, Antonio Sampaio is joined by Ignacio Cano, Alice Hills and Tessa Diphoorn for a wide-ranging discussion on the challenges of policing in the developing world, with a particular focus on Brazil, Kenya and Somalia.Ignacio, Alice and Tessa each describe the different forms of policing in each country, from extreme militarisation in Rio de Janeiro to sporadic and limited policing in Somalia and Kenya. However, they all highlight how corruption, limited state capacity and domestic politics impact policing and undermine a state’s willingness and ability to police in vulnerable and marginalised communities.They also examine how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted policing in recent months, as well as explore some of the positive signs in police reform coming out of Kenya.Dr Ignacio Cano is a member of the Laboratory of Violence at Rio de Janeiro State University and is currently visiting researcher at the Safety Lab in Cape Town, South Africa.Dr Alice Hills is Visiting Professor at the University of L

On 6 and 9 August 1945, the US military bombed the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki using a weapon of unprecedented destructive capability, the atom bomb. These bombings marked the beginning of the nuclear age and remain the only use of a nuclear weapon in an active conflict.To commemorate the 75th anniversary of these events, Meia Nouwens is joined by Dana Allin, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs, and Mark Fitzpatrick, Associate Fellow and former Executive Director of IISS–Americas, to discuss the legacy of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the lessons that are at risk of being forgotten today.They discuss the narrative around the use of the atom bomb, its impact on the national psyche of Japan and its role in creating the nuclear taboo and, eventually, the concept of nuclear deterrence through mutually assured destruction. Both Dana and Mark argue that it falls to today’s leaders to remember the lessons of the past and to slow the recent erosion of nuclear arms controls.We hop

In this week’s episode of Sounds Strategic, Meia Nouwens is joined by John Raine, Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, and Dr Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia and Editor of the Strategic Survey, for a discussion on political risk and ‘corporate foreign policy’.The economic instability caused by the COVID-19 crisis, coupled with the intensifying geo-economic rivalry between the US and China, has increased economic instability and dampened corporate prospects globally. John and Nigel argue that these factors have increased the need for robust ‘foreign policy’ among all public-facing organisations, from multinational corporations to universities. For them, good corporate foreign policy assesses, plans for and proactively addresses political risk in its many forms to better insulate companies and organisations from the highly politicised economic headwinds already gathering in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. John and Nigel also discuss the growing power of corpo

To celebrate the 50th episode of Sounds Strategic, Robert Ward, Director of the Geo-economics and Strategy programme at the IISS, hosts Meia Nouwens and Nigel Inkster for a fascinating and wide-ranging conversation on China, its foreign-policy motivations and what its possible dominance in technology could mean for the West.In the episode, Meia and Nigel examine the limits of China’s assertive, ‘wolf-warrior’ approach to foreign affairs. They discuss whether China’s recent behaviour is part of a grand strategic vision or simple opportunism at a time of increased international instability during the COVID-19 crisis.At the heart of Western concerns around Huawei is China’s potential to dominate the tech sector in the future. Meia and Nigel both highlight the dangers of decoupling from China and instead stress the importance of effective engagement as a means to ensure the West’s continued prosperity and to manage the political and economic challenge China represents in the 21st century.Meia and Nigel also discu

Following a special presentation by US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Meia and Antônio speak with Research Fellow Aaron Connelly on how the United States’ strategy towards Southeast Asia is viewed by Southeast Asian countries themselves. In the episode, Aaron explains why Secretary Esper’s recent remarks may indicate US policymakers are moving away from large-scale multilateral initiatives and towards ‘minilateralism’. Aaron also explores why some Southeast Asian states stand by a policy of non-alignment, despite Beijing’s heavy-handedness in recent years. In addition, Meia, Antônio and Aaron discuss how US Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea have changed over the years, recent tensions within the US–Philippines relationship, and upcoming elections in Malaysia.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 22 Jul

With the return of great-power competition to the forefront of international affairs, there has been a renewed focus among the world’s advanced militaries on what capabilities will be required to win or compete in possible conflicts in the future. In this week’s episode, Franz-Stefan Gady joins Meia and Antônio to discuss the concepts that underpin debates around future warfighting, and why doctrinal and organisational considerations will play an equal, if not greater, role for military planners looking to prepare for the future.They also discuss the limits of ‘grey-zone’ conflict, why authoritarian regimes may struggle to develop effective military organisational structures and how COVID-19 could impact military operations.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 15 July 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numb

Europe was already facing a host of complex geopolitical and economic challenges at the start of 2020, even before the COVID-19 crisis. In this week’s episode, Meia is joined by Sarah Raine and Fabrice Pothier for a wide-ranging and in-depth discussion on how the EU’s political agenda has been impacted by the pandemic and what issues remain at the forefront of its policy priorities.Domestically, the EU has experienced profound disruption because of COVID-19. Fabrice and Sarah examine how European states and the EU have responded to the crisis, as well as what this disruption means for Germany’s presidency of the Council of the European Union. They also discuss the prospects and dynamics of upcoming UK–EU negotiations.The EU is also managing a busy foreign-policy portfolio. Fabrice and Sarah explore the EU’s complex relationship with China, which is at once a ‘systemic rival’ to the EU as well as its global ‘partner’. They also assess the state of transatlantic affairs, NATO and the possibility of French-led r

China has been expanding its economic and diplomatic reach in the Gulf for little over a decade, but should growing Gulf–China relations concern the United States? In this week’s episode, Camille Lons speaks with Antônio and Meia on the dynamics of China’s growing presence in the Gulf, how it has evolved in recent years and its limitations. At its core, China’s interest in the Gulf remains primarily economic rather than security driven. As a result, Gulf states will continue to look to the US as the region’s security guarantor. However, as Camille explains, the recent development of a Chinese base in Djibouti and increasing arms sales to the Gulf from China are significant additions in the Gulf–China relationship.Much will be determined by the post-COVID-19 recovery. Camille explains that the increasing diversity in China’s energy mix may in turn weaken revenues in the Gulf. It is not yet clear how Belt and Road Initiative projects in the region will be affected, but, with increasing collaboration o

Japan was already heading towards economic difficulties before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the world’s economy. How will Japan’s economy fare in the post-COVID period? And will it affect the country’s geostrategic and geo-economic ambitions? In this week’s episode, Meia discusses these questions with Robert Ward and Yuka Koshino.Robert explains that Japan will likely experience a severe economic shock in the post-COVID period. This will likely have negative implications for the re-election prospects of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but Robert asserts that Japan will seek to maintain its position as a counterbalance to China in the Asia-Pacific region.Yuka highlights the various defence concerns facing Japan, including an increasingly assertive China and a hostile regime in North Korea. She explains how Japan remains committed to the US alliance and engaged with regional and extra-regional partners.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wh

The profound economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has led some to question the utility and necessity of traditional defence spending as a means of ensuring national security, especially in Europe. In this week’s episode of Sounds Strategic, Antônio speaks with Bastian Giegerich and Fenella McGerty on why defence spending remains important and the implications of the COVID-19 crisis for European defence projects, NATO and the future of the transatlantic relationship.Fenella explains how this current economic crisis is fundamentally different compared to the financial crisis in 2008–09 and why its impact on defence spending will be more complex as a result. Bastian argues that effective defence spending will be critical for Europe in the post-COVID period and highlights the challenges the EU and NATO will face if the US becomes a less reliable ally in the defence of Europe at a time of heightened global competition. We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subsc

In this week’s episode, Meia is joined by Lynn Kuok and Euan Graham for an in-depth discussion on what China’s activity in the South China Sea means for ASEAN, Australia, the US and Europe, and whether such actions are indicative of shifting geopolitical power dynamics.Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, China has maintained a constant presence in the South China Sea, even encroaching on the Exclusive Economic Zones of several Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia. Lynn explains the factors hindering ASEAN’s ability to curtail such Chinese activity and Euan assesses how Australia is adapting its foreign relations in response to China’s rising status within the international community.Meia, Lynn and Euan also consider the strategic implications of the new Chinese national security laws being imposed on Hong Kong and how they may impact China’s policy towards Taiwan and its foreign policy more broadly.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscrib

This week, Meia and Antônio are joined by Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security, for a conversation on the increasingly contested realm of maritime security, how Russia and China are developing their naval capabilities, and what technologies could revolutionise defence affairs at sea in the near future.During the episode, Nick explains why the traditional naval supremacy the US and its allies have enjoyed in recent decades is now eroding, as Russia and China develop their own maritime capabilities, and what impact this may have on both US power projection and global security at sea.They also discuss the specific capabilities Russia and China are adding to their respective navies and why uninhabited systems may be the new frontier for naval competition. We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds Strategic on wherever you listen to your favourite podcasts.Date of recording: 2 June 2020Sounds Strategic is recorded an

This week, Antonio and Meia are joined by Franck Bousquet, Senior Director of the World Bank's Fragility, Conflict and Violence Group, to discuss a new strategy that aims to enhance the organisation’s ability to support fragile states.By 2030 up to two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor will live in fragile or conflict-afflicted states. The World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict and Violence marks an evolution in how the World Bank aims to address the root causes of state fragility and violence. Franck explains how this strategy empowers the World Bank to work across the ‘fragility spectrum’, including a renewed focus on conflict prevention.Meia, Antonio and Franck also discuss the important role public, private and civil-society partnerships play within World Bank projects, the benefits of technology in monitoring and capacity-building in fragile states, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world’s most vulnerable populations.Date of recording: Tuesday 29 April 2020Sounds Strat

In this special episode of Sounds Strategic, Meia Nouwens and Antônio Sampaio discuss the major trends in modern armed conflict with contributors from the Armed Conflict Survey 2020, the annual review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of all active armed conflicts from the IISS.Meia speaks with Virginia Comolli and Eleanor Beevor on the key features of this year’s edition. The book examines 33 armed conflicts and details their respective conflict groups, strategic implications and prospects for resolution. Virginia explains why the growing intractability and internationalisation of conflicts were chosen as two of the key themes in this year’s edition. Eleanor explores the perceived value of armed UAVs for non-state armed groups and how internal dynamics within conflict groups can influence their activities.Antônio meanwhile chats with Tuesday Reitano from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime on the practical and political challenges of combatting human tra

In this week’s episode, Meia Nouwens speaks with Viraj Solanki and Antoine Levesques on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected South Asia.Viraj discusses the ways India’s nationwide lockdown has evolved since it was initially imposed in late March and the impact this response has had on India’s society and economic prospects.Antoine, meanwhile, examines Pakistan’s own response to COVID-19, including the role the military has played in combatting the virus and what this crisis may mean for Pakistan’s economic future.Meia, Antoine and Viraj also discuss China’s burgeoning presence in the region, from the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the technical and medical assistance China has given to small island nations in the Indian Ocean.Finally, Viraj explains India’s own efforts to develop its regional leadership credentials by reinforcing its bilateral and multilateral relationships in South Asia and beyond.We hope you enjoy listening to the episode. Don’t forget to follow, rate and subscribe to Sounds S

This week, Meia speaks with her co-host, Antônio Sampaio, Research Fellow for Conflict, Security and Development, on how Brazil has been impacted by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has made headlines due to his unorthodox response to the COVID-19 virus, sacking his health minister, Luiz Mandetta, and largely disregarding or undermining the medical community’s advice on how best to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus in Brazil. As Antônio explains, this has left the onus on state governments to develop their own responses to the pandemic and put extreme pressure on Brazil’s public health system.Amid this pandemic, Brazil is also experiencing an acute political crisis following the resignation of Bolsonaro’s popular Minister of Justice and Public Security, Sérgio Moro. Antônio assesses how this scandal could impact the Bolsonaro government and Brazilian politics in the future.Finally, in the absence of strong federal leadership, Antonio explores how civil societies, and even s

In this week’s episode of Sounds Strategic, Antônio Sampaio speaks with Senior Fellow Virginia Comolli and Research Associate Eleanor Beevor from the Conflict, Security and Development Programme at the IISS. They discuss the challenges fragile states face in managing the COVID-19 pandemic, why international organisations are struggling to deliver humanitarian aid and how non-state armed groups have been responding to this global crisis.International organisations, such as the UN and the African Union, have struggled to maintain their commitments in conflict-afflicted countries during the pandemic. Virginia details why this has been the case and how the delivery of humanitarian assistance has been impacted. She also looks at the second-order effects this crisis is having on food security.Non-state armed groups such as Al-Shabaab in Somalia are also complicating responses to the COVID-19 virus. As Eleanor explains, many armed groups are restricting humanitarian access to areas they control, as well as generatin

In this week’s episode of Sounds Strategic, Meia Nouwens speaks with Executive Director of IISS–Asia, Dr Tim Huxley, on how countries in Southeast Asia have been handling the COVID-19 pandemic and the wider geopolitical impact the crisis may have on the region.Although a hugely diverse region in political, economic and cultural terms, Tim explains how and why Southeast Asia has, for the most part, managed the COVID-19 crisis more successfully than many Western countries. Crucially, Tim warns that as the economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic becomes more pronounced, traditional Western security commitments in Southeast Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region more broadly, could weaken further. This possible absence of Western support could provide a committed China an opportunity to change the balance of power in the region in its favour.Tim and Meia also discuss the political risks present in how Indonesia and the Philippines have handled the crisis and why this pandemic could mark a historic shift in geopolitical

In this week’s episode, Antonio and Meia are joined by David Gordon, IISS Senior Adviser for Geo-Economics and Strategy, to discuss how the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global economy, why this crisis is so unique and the prospects for an eventual recovery.The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented and, crucially, near-universal closing of the world’s economy. As David explains, the synchronicity of this shutdown and the simmering rivalry between the US and China are key factors that will likely worsen the economic impact of the crisis and complicate the recovery. David predicts that we will see major changes to global supply-chain dynamics as a result of this crisis, as well as challenges ahead for the international institutions tasked with restoring the global economy in the post-crisis period.During the episode, Antonio, Meia and David also explore how COVID-19 has affected emerging markets, countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic politics in China.We hope you e