Rational Security

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Alan Rozenshtein, Benjamin Wittes, and Molly Reynolds to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“An Eye for an Iran.” After weeks of waiting, Israel finally launched the strikes on Iran it had long promised in response to the volley of missiles Iran hit it with earlier this month. Compared to expectations, the strikes were relatively limited and aimed primarily at Iranian military targets, instead of its nuclear and oil infrastructure. And the United States is now urging an end to these “tit-for-tat” strikes. But is this likely to be the case? Or are Israel’s actions just the beginning of a bigger conflict?“He Just Slid into my DMs!” This week, the Wall Street Journal published a stunning report indicating that billionaire industrialist Elon Musk has been having previously undisclosed communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials. How concerning should these conversations be? And what ramific

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Tyler McBrien and Anna Hickey and special guest Georgetown University professor and CSIS Senior Fellow (as well as Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor) Dan Byman to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Some Vacancies in Management.” Israeli forces unintentionally hit their number one target last week when an Israeli military patrol in Gaza stumbled across and killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is widely believed to be the main architect behind the October 7 massacre. It’s the latest in a series of military operations that have left the leadership ranks of both Hamas and Hezbollah decimated. But what are these changes at the top likely to mean for these organizations? Is this an opportunity for peace? Or an opening to greater escalation?“Forgotten, or Not Forgotten Enough.” Sudan has spent the past several months spiraling toward a political and humanitarian crisis of historical proportions, driven in substantial part

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Anastasiia Lapatina, and Eugenia Lostri to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Kursked.” This week, even as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rolls out his “Victory Plan” to Western allies, Russian forces have made progress reclaiming what some have described as a key part of that plan: the region of Kursk within Russia, which Ukrainian forces seized earlier this year. How central is Kursk to Zelensky’s vision for how to end the conflict? And how will Russia’s apparent progress impact his plans?“The Waiting Game.” The world remains on the edge of its seat, waiting to see how Israel will pursue its promised response against Iran for the volley of missiles the latter launched against it earlier this month. What sort of response does Israel seem to have in store? And what role will the United States be playing?“Tap Tap Tapping.” A coalition of China-associated hackers called “Salt

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Kevin Frazier, and Katherine Pompilio to talk over the week's big national security news stories, including:“The Fourth Law of Robotics is, You Don’t Talk About the First Three Laws of Robotics.” California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed SB 1047 this past week, a measure that would have imposed the first set of meaningful safety regulations on the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI)—measures industry leaders said were onerous and unnecessary. While Newsom vetoed this legislation, he endorsed the broader idea of safety action on AI, including at the state level. What does Newsom’s move tell us about the state of the AI industry and efforts to regulate it?“Battening Down the Hatchetmen.” As countless Americans have struggled through the aftermath of Hurricane Helene—and are preparing for Hurricane Milton, due to make landfall Wednesday—Congress has been in recess. And Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has expressed his opposition to any

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic, and Tyler McBrien to try to make sense of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Pulling Up the Escalation Ladder.” Israel’s escalating campaign against Hezbollah turned regional yesterday, as Iran launched a salvo of more than 180 ballistic missiles against Israel. While the damage was limited, both Israel and the United States have promised consequences. What strategies are Israel, Iran, and the United States pursuing in all this? And where will it lead?“At Least He Didn’t Get Aslan Killed.” New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s passion for Turkish delights has led to his indictment on multiple charges relating to alleged corruption, specifically at the behest of individuals associated with the Turkish and potentially other foreign governments. Adams, in turn, claims he is being targeted for, among other reasons, speaking out about immigration concerns. What is the real driver behind Adams’s indictment?&

This week, Scott was joined by Natalie Orpett, Anna Bower, and Matt Gluck to talk over some of the week's big national security news, including:“Some Assembly Required.” On Tuesday, President Biden gave his fourth and final speech as president to the U.N. General Assembly. He used the occasion to reflect on the many foreign policy decisions of his presidency, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan, opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the (thus far unsuccessful) pursuit of a ceasefire in the conflict in Gaza. What does this speech—and the year’s U.N. General Assembly more broadly—tell us about the state of his foreign policy legacy?“Keeping it Peachy.” Georgia’s state election board is in the news for rules changes that some allege could delay finalization of the 2024 election results, opening a possible door for Congress to manipulate the results. But what will these rules changes really mean? And what does it tell us about the potential for (and limits on) efforts to manipulate the outcome of

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare team members Alan Rozenshtein, Tyler McBrien, and RatSec newbie Anastasiia "Nastya" Lapatina to talk through the week's national security headlines, including:“A Shot Across the Rubicon.” Reports indicate that President Biden and his U.K. allies may be on the verge of giving Ukraine approval to use their advanced weapons systems to strike deep into Russia, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat that doing so would be seen as an act of war. How risky a move is this? “TikTok on the DokKit.” Challengers of the federal law that would ban TikTok had their (first) day in court on Tuesday in oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit. How were their criticisms received by the three-judge panel? And what will the implications of their ruling be for the law, and for TikTok more generally?“Dialing M.” Thousands of Lebanese—many of them members of the terrorist group and political movement Hezbollah—were killed or injured this week, when their pagers detonated

In the debut episode of RatSec 2.1, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Kevin Frazier, Eugenia Lostri, and Benjamin Wittes to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“I Have Concepts of a Segment Topic.” On Tuesday, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump faced off in what might end up being the only presidential debate between the two candidates in the 2024 election. What did it tell us about how national security is figuring into this election? “Running Political Interference Interference.” The Justice Department has been very busy these past few weeks, bringing an array of indictments and enforcement actions against various Russian actors and their proxies for spreading misinformation, surreptitiously funding political commentary, and otherwise attempting to interfere in the upcoming 2024 elections. What explains this sudden wave of activity so close to the election? And what threats are still hanging out there?“Never Forgot.” Twenty-three years have passed since the unprecedented ter

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott celebrated the third anniversary of Rational Security 2.0 with their Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds, Natalie Orpett, and Tyler McBrien, who sat in brutal judgment as the three co-hosts pitched them their hottest takes yet, including:Are concerns about judicial ethics overblown?Do ethics require that we open the borders and make whoever wants to become one a citizen?Should we just treat AI systems like the wild animals they are?Which takes are undercooked, which too hot, and which are just right? Listen in and decide!Meanwhile, for object lessons, Scott shared some news about the future of Rational Security moving forward. Listen to the end of the episode to find out what! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler "Spicy Tyler" McBrien to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:“Jack Smith Takes a Mulligan on his Big Swing.” A grand jury has re-indicted former President Trump for his actions relating to the Jan. 6 insurrection, after Special Counsel Jack Smith trimmed and massaged the allegations to accommodate the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity. How different is this indictment? What are the next steps in the trial? And will these new allegations have better odds of surviving Supreme Court review?“An Eye for an Eye Leaves the Whole World in a Bind.” This past week, Israel and Hezbollah traded another vicious round of attacks along Israel’s shared northern border with Lebanon, as part of the long-awaited response to Israel’s targeted killing of Hezbollah leaders a month ago. Now the region is waiting with bated breath to see whether this will be the end of it or the start of a larger war. How s

This week, Alan and Quinta sat down with Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to talk about the week’s big developments, including:“It can always get worse…” Although President Biden’s replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket has reenergized the Democrats’ bid to retain the White House, the race is still a tossup, and former President Trump could well reenter the White House in 2025. Have we successfully “Trump-proofed” the government in anticipation? “Run DNC.” The Democratic National Convention is taking place this week in Chicago, and it’s a striking contrast to last month’s Republican convention. That event was largely a celebration of one person, Donald Trump. By contrast, the DNC is as much about the party as it is about its nominee, Kamala Harris. What does it say about the relative strengths of America’s two parties and what that means for the future of American democracy?“Making the Three Laws of Robotics Actual Laws?” California’s SB 1047, the controversial AI

This week, the whole gang—Alan, Quinta, and Scott—got back together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“In Post-Soviet Russia, Ukraine Invade You!” In an ironic reversal, Ukraine invaded Russia this past week, seizing substantial portions of the oblast of Kursk and surprising both Russian forces and Ukrainian allies in what appears to be its most successful military venture in more than a year. Why did Ukraine take this step? What will it mean in the longer arc of this war?“The X is for Extremism.” Since the tragic murder of three young girls earlier this month, the United Kingdom has been struck by violent riots, the perpetrators of which appear to believe (incorrectly) that the attacker in question was a Syrian asylum seeker, in substantial part due to far-right disinformation being spread by social media, including by X owner Elon Musk. What do these events tell us about the effects of disinformation and their intersection with political violence?“But Our Emails!” The Trump campaig

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's very big national security news stories, including:“The Waiting Game.” The Middle East is on edge this week as it awaits a possible attack by Iran or Hezbollah on Israel in response to the suspected assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders last week, including the chairman of Hamas’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed while visiting Tehran for the swearing in of its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. What might a response look like, if there is one? And what does it mean for the region, including the prospects of a Gaza ceasefire?“Stay Weird, Austin.” Just days after the announcement of a long-negotiated plea deal for three of the four remaining defendants in the military commission trial relating to the 9/11 attacks, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin took the surprising and still largely unexplained move of intervening to rescind that deal and remove the convening authority th

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Kevin Frazier to talk through some of the week’s biggest national security news, including:“KOSA Nostra.” An overwhelming majority of senators voted to pass the Kids Online Safety Act, also known as KOSA—a bipartisan piece of legislation that would impose new responsibilities on online platforms in looking after their underage users. Despite the 91-3 vote in the Senate, KOSA has faced strong opposition from a number of civil rights and internet freedom groups, and its path ahead in the House remains uncertain. What’s next for the bill, and what does its success so far say about the state of tech policy in the U.S.?“Herding Llamas.” The company formerly known as Facebook announced the release of a new AI large language model, Llama 3.1. Meta described the model as “open-source”—but is it responsible to release such a powerful model that way? And what does this mean for the AI arms race in Silicon Valley?“Keeping the Nine in Line.” Fresh on the heels of the Supreme Cour

This week, Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare teammates Molly Reynolds and Eugenia Lostri to talk over the week’s big national security news, including…“Bye Biden.” President Biden made the historic decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race over the weekend. He swiftly endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris, who now appears poised to become the Democratic candidate at the party’s convention next month. How might Harris be different from Biden, both as a candidate and as a president? And what will the change mean for the 2024 race?“The CrowdStrikes Back.” Countless businesses around the world found their Windows computers disabled this past week, due to a faulty update pushed out by the prominent cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. The consequences continue to ripple out, including waves of canceled and rescheduled flights at numerous major airlines. What can this incident teach us about the security of our computer infrastructure? And are there ways to avoid similar incidents in the fut

This week Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through one of the most eventful weeks in national security news in recent history, including:“Too Close for Comfort.” Former President Trump narrowly avoided an assassination attempt this past weekend that ultimately left one rally-goer dead and two others critically wounded. While Trump and President Biden both made calls for national unity, several of Trump’s close allies were quick to blame the Biden administration’s rhetoric painting Trump as a threat to democracy. What will this historic event mean for the 2024 election—and for the rise in political violence and related rhetoric that’s preceded it?“Cannon Fodder.” After months of glacial judicial proceedings, federal District Court Judge Aileen Cannon finally did what many of her critics had long expected and dismissed the special counsel’s criminal case against former President Trump, based in large part on an aggressive reading of the Appointment

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Contributing Editor Eric Ciaramella to talk over all the national security news causing traffic issues in D.C., including:“Ukraine in the Membrane.” NATO is hosting its 75th anniversary summit here in Washington, D.C., this week. But its members’ eyes are uniformly locked on Ukraine, whose (eventual) membership several will voice support for this week—even as others worry about what a future Trump administration might mean for the alliance and its commitment to the ongoing conflict there. What trajectory is NATO headed on? And what should the alliance be doing to prepare?“So Gauche.” Left political movements emerged victorious over populist right-wing movements in two major elections in Europe this past week. In France, the left-wing New Popular Front squeaked out a narrow plurality over President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition and the right-wing National Rally. And in the U.K., a resurgent L

This week, a Scott-less Alan and Quinta sat down with Lawfare Tarbell Fellow Kevin Frazier and law school-bound Associate Editor Hyemin Han to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience.” Unlike Ronald Reagan, Joe Biden’s underwhelming performance at the first (and perhaps only) presidential debate has put his party in a panic about his chances to win the presidential election. Was Biden’s performance as bad as the pundits and betting markets seem to think and, if so, what should he do about it, both with respect to his staying in the race and even his ability to finish out his presidential term?“When you’re the president, they let you do it.” After promising an opinion “for the ages,” the Supreme Court, in a 6-3, party-line decision, held that presidents enjoy at least some degree of absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts. Did the opini

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined once again by Lawfare Tarbell Fellow Kevin Frazier to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:Wiki-plea-ks.” After more than a decade in effective confinement—first at the Ecuadorian embassy in London, then in a British prison—Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is set to plead guilty in a U.S. federal court in Saipan to a single violation of the Espionage Act for his role in securing and publishing troves of classified U.S. diplomatic cables in 2010, at which point he will walk free. What can we learn from Assange’s saga?“Houthi Can’t Fail.” After months of sustained hostilities—and a U.S.-led multilateral military response—the Houthi campaign against shipping through the Red Sea has once again ratcheted up a notch, disabling a number of ships in sometimes fatal attacks and teaming up with similarly Iran-affiliated Iraqi militia groups. As global supply lines strain, is it clear that the international community’s strategy failed? What more (or di

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Contributing Editor and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Eric Ciaramella to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Prime Deliverables, in Two Days or Less.” The Biden administration and its European allies coughed up a number of big wins for Ukraine at a meeting of the G7 and subsequent Ukraine peace summit this past week, ranging from a new U.S.-Ukraine security agreement to a commitment to provide $50 billion in assistance derived from frozen Russian assets. But are these measures game-changers—especially with political changes in both Europe and the United States on the horizon?“Trying to F Us.” Policy advisors to former President Trump reportedly have some big plans for government employees if he is elected to a second stint in the White House—including the return of Schedule F, an reorganization of the civil service that would have gutted job protections and made it easier to replace civil ser