Rational Security

This week, Scott joined his Lawfare colleagues Natalie Orpett and Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“In Mother Russia, Sometimes Bear Poke You.” Discussions over a possible broader ceasefire in Ukraine—beyond the temporary (and limited) energy and Black Sea ceasefire agreements last week—appear to have ground to a halt over Russian demands. Many observers suspect this is simply a stalling technique by Russian President Vladimir Putin, as Russia prepares for another offensive intended to improve his negotiating leverage. President Trump, meanwhile, in a rare swipe at the Russian dictator, has said he’s “pissed off.” But will Trump bring leverage to bear enough for Putin to budge? Or are the ceasefire negotiations like to stay stuck in the mud—and, if so, will Trump know who to blame?“Nuukin’ Futs.” Vice President J.D. Vance visited the northernmost U.S. military base in Greenland last week and delivered a speech in front of U.S. service members that accused Denmar

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Roger Parloff to talk through the week of the most Rational Security-esque of national security news stories ever, including: “Oopsec.” In a strong contender for the most ridiculous national security story of the year, senior Trump administration officials appear to have planned a series of airstrikes in Yemen that took place earlier this month through the social messaging app Signal—and they appear to have included The Atlantic’s Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg by mistake, giving him access to detailed war plans and internal policy discussions that he has now (mostly) made public. How irresponsible were the Trump administration’s actions? And what will the consequences be of this mistake?“Secrets, Lies, and Bureaucratic Red Tape.” The Trump administration employed the Alien Enemies Act to remove alleged members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua to a notorious prison in El Salvador last week, just before or perhaps just after

This week, Scott sat down with Rational Security veterans and Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes and Molly Reynolds to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“House Odds.” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson scored an unlikely win last week, when he kept the narrow (and notoriously fractious) Republican house majority united enough to pass its own continuing resolution to keep the government open—and then successfully got enough Democrats to acquiesce to debate on it for it to pass through the Senate without amendment. What does this tell us about the current dynamics in Congress—and what the Democratic minority in either chamber might realistically hope to achieve moving forward?“This Pressure Goes to Eleven.” The Trump administration amped up military operations in the Middle East this week, taking out a senior ISIS leader in Iraq, pursuing an aggressive set of airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen, and greenlighting a renewal of Israeli hostilities in Gaza, seemingly ending the weeks

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editor and co-host emeritus Alan Rozenshtein and Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Lowering the Bar.” Last week, the Trump administration took aim at two leading law firms—Covington & Burling and Perkins Coie—by repealing lawyers’ security clearances and setting limits on the extent to which government actors can contract with them, on the apparent grounds that they worked for Trump’s perceived enemies. Is this legal? Will it be challenged? And what will the effect be on the legal industry?“Big Math on Campus.” The Trump administration recently announced its intent to withhold $400 million in government grants from Columbia University, on the grounds that it had not done enough to combat anti-semitism on campus—a measure it paired with an indication that it would repeal student visas from those who had expressed “pro-Hamas” views. Is this tack a proper or legally sustainable one? And what

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds and Quinta Jurecic to work through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Kyiv Calm and Tarry On.” This past Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the White House for what turned into a disastrous meeting, in which President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance baited him into a heated public argument over Russia’s invasion of his country. In its aftermath, Trump refused to sign the minerals deal Zelensky was there to finalize and has now cut off U.S. assistance to Ukraine—though, at the time of recording, reports were emerging that the minerals deal was now back on track. And while European allies have stepped up their support for Ukraine, Trump’s Republican allies have united in support of him and increasingly called for Zelenskyy’s resignation. What contributed to this explosive about-face in U.S. policy towards Ukraine? And what does it tell us about the Trump administration’s decision-making?“B

This week, Scott joined his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Natalie Orpett, and Anastasiia Lapatina for a rare, all-in-person discussion of the week’s big national security news, including:“Chicken Kyiv, Served Cold.” The Trump administration’s vision for a peace settlement in Ukraine is coming into focus—and it’s not the one many Ukrainians and Europeans were hoping for. In negotiations that have largely excluded Ukrainian and European partners—and amidst a barrage of hostile attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s democratic legitimacy—the Trump administration appears to be insisting on some U.S. stake in Ukraine’s rare earth minerals while remaining unwilling to support Ukraine’s NATO membership and resistant to providing hard security guarantees in response. Are the contours of such a deal something Ukraine can agree to? And will it advance U.S. and Ukrainian national security interests?“Euro Vision.” In some of his first comments since emerging from elections as Germany’s new chancellor,

This week, Scott sat down with his colleagues Tyler McBrien and Roger Parloff, as well as special guest Claire Meynial, U.S. correspondent for Le Point, to talk over the week's big national security news, including:“Make Europe Aghast Again.” Vice President J.D. Vance stunned the Munich Security Conference last week with remarks that criticized European allies for suppressing far-right and anti-immigration voices while playing down threats from China and Russia. Combined with the Trump administration’s past hostility to Transatlantic relationships, many are taking Vance’s as a sign of a downgrade in the U.S.-Europe relationship. But is this overstating things? And how far can the Trump administration adjust the relationship on its own, even if it wanted to?“I Would Do Anything for Bove, but I Won’t Do That.” (Credit to Robert Anderson, via Mike Stern.) The resignation of seven Justice Department attorneys over their refusal to move to dismiss charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams at the directio

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare teammates Tyler McBrien and Nastya Lapatina and Lawfare friend Joel Braunold, Managing Director of the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace, to talk over the week's big national security news stories, including:“Mi Gaza Es Su Gaza.” President Donald Trump shocked the world last week when, in a joint press briefing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he announced plans for the United States to “own” Gaza, take responsibility for reconstructing it, and ultimately renovate it into a “Riviera” on the Eastern Mediterranean—one, he later made clear, that Palestinians would no longer be allowed to live in. What of this plan is serious and what is bluster? And what impact will it have on the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the delicate ceasefire that Trump’s emissary worked so hard to secure just weeks ago in Gaza?“Bullets for Bauxite.” President Trump recently reiterated his desire for a quick end to the co

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Molly Reynolds, and Anna Bower to talk through another big week of national security news, including:“Checked Out and Off Balance.” Over its first two weeks in office, the Trump administration has pushed against the traditional limits of congressional authority by unlawfully impounding funds, terminating federal employees contrary to statute, and seeking to dismantle at least one federal agency contrary to statute. But the Republican-controlled Congress has thus far remained almost entirely complacent, if not supportive of the president’s actions. How far will the Trump administration be able to go? And what will the long-term consequences be for the separation of powers?“Jus Soli? Jus Kidding.’” As one of his first acts after returning to the White House, Donald Trump issued an executive order refusing to recognize birthright citizenship in the United States for anyone whose parents are not citizens or lawful permanent residents. All told

This week, Scott was joined by his colleagues Kevin and Eugenia—in what is sadly her last episode before leaving Lawfare—as well as special guest Peter Harrell for a deep dive into the week’s national security news, including:“Tariff or Takeoff.” The Trump administration got into what is arguably its first major international spat this week when Colombia’s refusal to accept a U.S. military flight returning migrants to that country led President Trump to threaten an array of punitive measures, from visa cut-offs to sanctions and tariffs. After Colombian President Gustavo Petro backed down, the White House was quick to claim victory. But how sustainable is Trump’s strategy? And is it really the route to restoring respect for the United States that the White House claims it is?“Talk to Me When They Get To ‘Project: The Fifth Element.’” Last week, the Trump administration announced Project Stargate—an initiative not to revive ‘90s sci-fi classics, but to instead make a massive investment in the U.S. development o

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues and hosts emeriti Benjamin Wittes, Quinta Jurecic, and Alan Rozenshtein to talk through the week’s big—and we mean BIG—national security news, including:“Executive Disorder.” America’s once-and-future President Donald Trump hit the ground running, issuing dozens of executive actions on his first afternoon in office, from once again withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement to pardoning or commuting the sentences for almost everyone involved in the Jan. 6 insurrection. But which actions are important and which are just for the show? And what do they tell us about what to expect from a second Trump presidency?“Swiping Up on Consistency.” The Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the law banning TikTok triggered an unexpected crisis last week, as TikTok users who suddenly realized the platform was in danger apparently mounted a pressure campaign against elected officials that led several, including President Biden, to waffle on the desirability of the ban. Bu

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Roger Parloff, Renée DiResta, and Tyler McBrien to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“The Art of the Heel.” As President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration nears, the various legal cases against him are gradually winding down to their inevitable end. But Trump is not letting them go quietly: instead, he has fought certain final steps tooth and nail, ranging from the (mostly meaningless) sentencing in his New York case to the final release of the report that Special Counsel Jack Smith is obligated to write. How do these various threads seem like they will resolve? And what will the legacy be for presidential accountability?“Make Meta MAGA Again.” The recent election appears to be triggering a wave of changes in corporate America, as a number of leading tech companies like Meta have begun quite publicly breaking down disinformation protections, paring back DEI programs, and eliminating offices and personnel that have long peeved co

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:“Mike Drop (Almost).” While we are still two weeks away from having a new president, the 119th Congress is already underway. But there are signs of tension in the Republican majority controlling both chambers, with House Republicans (under pressure from former President Trump and adviser Elon Musk) having killed a leadership-negotiated compromise funding bill at the end of the last Congress and Speaker Mike Johnson just barely securing reelection by a single vote after some last minute wrangling within the Republican caucus. What do these recent events tell us about what we should expect over the next year?“Will Be Mild.” The Jan. 6 that passed earlier this week went very differently than the one four years ago, with Congress peacefully recognizing former President Trump’s election back to the White House. How are the legacies of the Jan. 6 insurrection of 2021 win

For the podcast’s annual end-of-year episode, Scott sat down with co-hosts emeritus Alan Rozenshtein and Quinta Jurecic to talk over listener-submitted topics and object lessons, including:How will the collapse of the Assad regime impact the region? And can the United States help create a secular, democratic Syria?How is the pending TikTok ban even enforceable (if it is)?What national security story from 2024 deserved more attention?Won’t the Fifth Circuit’s recent Tornado Cash opinion simply lead the Treasury Department to sanction the cryptocurrency Ethereum as a whole?What are the most underrated threats to U.S. national security in the last half of this decade?What will be the Trump administration’s first major national security misstep?How worried should the United States be about the BRIC countries’ recent discussions of forming their own reserve currency?For object lessons, Trevor recommended insightful indie video games for our three hosts based on their interests: “Bury Me, My Love” for Scott; “We. T

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower and Natalie Orpett and Lawfare Contributing Editor Michel Paradis to talk about the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“A Justice Delayed Still Has Justice on the Mind.” After weeks of waiting, New York state court judge Justice Juan Merchan has finally become the first judge to apply the Supreme Court’s Trump v. United States immunity decision, holding that incoming President Donald Trump’s convictions under New York state law may stand and did not unduly rely on conduct for which he is immune. How persuasive is his ruling? And what can it tell us about the future of both Donald Trump’s criminal case and the Supreme Court’s immunity holding?“A Break in the Case.” Tectonic shifts in Syrian politics over the past few weeks that has led, among other consequences, to the release of thousands of former prisoners, have brought back to the fore the case of Austin Tice, an American journalist who has been missing in Syria for more

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin Wittes, Eugenia Lostri, and Tyler McBrien to break down the week's big national security news, including:“The Long Road to Damascus.” Syria’s Assad regime collapsed suddenly last week in the face of a rebel offensive, ending thirteen years of revolution. What comes next, however, is anyone’s guess. How will this shift impact regional security? And how is the incoming Trump administration likely to respond?“Pardonez-Moi.” President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to nominate unabashed loyalist Kash Patel—a person who has published a book listing political enemies he thinks should be prosecuted by the Justice Department—for the soon-to-be-vacant position of FBI Director has renewed concerns that the incoming Trump administration will use the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies. President Biden may have responded in part by pardoning his son Hunter for a wide range of conduct—and some are arguing he should extend similar protections t

This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina, as well as special guest Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell, for an episode committed to one big topic: what Trump’s return to the White House might mean for Ukraine. They tackled the issue in three parts:“What Condition My Attrition Is In.” By most accounts, after more than two years of fighting, the conflict in Ukraine has come to look very much like a war of attrition. How do Ukrainians feel about the state of the conflict and the prospects looking forward? What steps are the outgoing Biden administration taking to change the calculus—and what impact might they still have, if any?“New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.” Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises a sea change in how the United States has approached the conflict in Ukraine. What do his early national security appointments—and engagements with, among others, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—tell us about his plans? And where d

This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Molly Reynolds and Alan Rozenshtein, and with University of Houston Law Center Assistant Professor of Law Chris Mirasola, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Troops, There It Is.” President-elect Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week when he suggested that he intended to declare a national emergency and use U.S. soldiers to implement his planned deportation of undocumented migrants from the United States—the first of many potential domestic uses of the military some fear he will pursue. But does the president have the authority to use the military in this way? And is a(nother) national emergency really necessary?“Break It ‘Til You Make It.” Some have expressed serious doubt as to whether the incoming Trump administration’s flurry of highly controversial nominees for senior positions in government will be able to successfully make its way through even the Republican-held Senate. But doing so may not be necessary, as Trump’s al

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Anna Bower, Eugenia Lostri, and Roger Parloff to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:“Putting the Dismal in Dismissal.” Donald Trump’s election as president for a second time puts the state and federal criminal charges against him—and potentially some of his supporters and co-conspirators—in unprecedented historical territory. Where do these cases seem to be headed? And what will it mean for the broader effort at accountability, especially around Jan. 6?“Taking Bytes Out of Crime.” As one of its last acts in power, the Biden administration seems poised to support a forthcoming U.N. convention on cybercrime, despite reservations among some observers that it may be abused by autocratic regimes and strategic rivals. Why is the Biden administration tempted by the treaty? And what will its support at this late hour mean in practice?“Meme of Rivals.” Donald Trump is only one week in as president-elect but has already released a flurry of app

On Tuesday, November 5, former President Trump won the 2024 presidential election, becoming the second president to win a non-consecutive second term. Our team has been hard at work analyzing the fallout, but doing so has left us a little tight on time to record our usual weekly episode. So in lieu of Rational Security this week, we're bringing you a conversation in which Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sat down with Lawfare Senior Editors Alan Rozenshtein, Scott R. Anderson, Anna Bower, and Quinta Jurecic to discuss what happens now. They talk about what a second Trump administration may bring and what to keep an eye out for during the transition in a live recording on Lawfare’s YouTube channel.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/c/trumptrials. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.