Rational Security

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes to talk through some of the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:“Save the Last Gantz.” Leading opposition figure Benny Gantz has left Israel’s war cabinet over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to establish post-conflict plans for Gaza, raising serious questions about the stability of Netanyahu’s far-right government. What does Gantz’s departure mean for the future of the conflict?“Congress Shall Make No Law…Abridging the Freedom of [BEEP], or of the [PRESS ENTER KEY].” California is on the verge of enacting one of the country’s first AI safety laws. But critics are arguing that the type of restrictions it imposes may run afoul of the First Amendment. How does AI fit with the freedom of speech—and does the First Amendment put it beyond regulatory reach?“A Stale Macron is One Tough Cookie.” Recent elections to the European Parliament saw a surge in right (and particularly far-right) parties

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien to discuss how he is coping with the end of the New York trial and to run through some of the week’s big national security news stories, including:“A Perfect Conviction.” Last week, after less than two days of deliberation, a jury in New York state criminal court found former President Trump guilty of all 34 criminal counts on which he was being tried. He’s now scheduled to be sentenced just days before the Republican National Convention this summer, where he is expected to be named the party’s 2024 presidential nominee. What does this conviction mean for Trump’s campaign? What are his prospects for appeal? And what happens if he still wins?“Biden Time.” Last week, President Biden laid out a three-step cease-fire plan for Gaza, sending the clearest signal yet that he is intent on ending the conflict there. Both sides have accepted the plan in principle but have yet to reach agreement on the particulars—and, meanwhile, Israel’s Ra

This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott sat down with Lawfare all-stars Natalie Orpett, Eugenia Lostri, and Kevin Frazier to talk about the week’s big national security news, including: “Waiting to Expel.” The New York Times reported this week that the anticipated transfer of almost a dozen detainees from Guantanamo Bay to Oman was halted in the wake of the Oct. 7 massacre. This as Oman is reportedly preparing to expel a number of former detainees already resident there with their families. What do these developments mean for the effort to resettle detainees and ultimately close Guantanamo?“The First Law of Robotics is Don’t Talk About the Law of Robotics.” AI safety is back on the front pages again, after the resignation of much of OpenAI’s “superalignment” team, which had been tasked with preventing the AIs being developed from becoming a threat to humanity. A bipartisan group of senators, meanwhile, has laid out a roadmap to guide legislative efforts. But is it on the right track? And just how much sh

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes, fresh from his New York rumspringa, to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“You Don’t Have to Go Home, But You Can’t Stay Here.” That’s the message that will soon be going out to those Lawfare team members that have been camping out at our temporary Manhattan studio, as, after weeks of proceedings, it is officially closing time for former President Donald Trump’s criminal prosecution in New York. How has the trial proceeded? And what have we learned up to this point, before the verdict comes in?“Spinning the Wheels of Justice.” The prosecutor for the International Criminal Court has made a landmark request for arrest warrants targeting Hamas’s three most senior officials as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on the grounds that they have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. Is this a step towards justice? Or towards an end to

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to go over the week’s big national security news, including:“Does NSM Stand for No Such Memo?” Last week, in a long-awaited report required by National Security Memorandum 20 that President Biden issued earlier this year, the Biden administration concluded that there were credible reasons to believe that Israel may well have violated international law and obstructed U.S.-backed humanitarian flows in its conduct of the war in Gaza. But it still declined to find Israeli assurances to the contrary lacking in credibility enough to interrupt U.S. security assistance. What does this tell us about the state of U.S. support for Israel—especially as Israeli forces appear increasingly set to pursue an offensive on Rafah that Biden has openly opposed?“What to Expect When You’re Not Expecting.” A sharp global decline in birth rates—often below replacement levels, especially (but not exclusively) in highly developed countries—has som

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare’s Fellow in Technology Policy and Law Eugenia Lostri, to hash through the week’s big national security news, including:“Digital Solid Parody.” The Biden administration is making major moves when it comes to emerging technologies, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken rolling out a new multilateral strategy for “digital solidarity” this week at the annual RSA cybersecurity conference, among other actions. What is new about what the Biden administration is doing? And where will it lead? “Avengers’ Endgame.” Israeli military operations in Gaza may be entering a final stage, as forces may have begun an assault on Rafah—one that U.S. policymakers have warned against, as it could harm the countless Gazan civilians that have sought refuge there. Will this be a breaking point for U.S. support for Israeli military operations? And how will it impact ongoing ceasefire negotiations?“Stomp and Circumstance.” College campuses around the country are at a stands

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Contributing Editor Eric Ciaramella to talk through the week’s big natsec stories, including:“Not Done Nyet.” U.S. foreign assistance is finally on its way to Ukraine, along with additional support from European allies. But will it be enough to solidify or advance the beleaguered Ukrainian military’s position? What is the state of the conflict and how does it look set to move forward?“Official Tracts.” Last week, the Supreme Court heard wide-ranging arguments in Trump v. United States, the appeal of Trump’s criminal prosecution for events related to Jan. 6 considering his far-reaching claims of presidential immunity. Several of the justices seemed quite committed to weighing in on where the lines of immunity should be drawn (even if few seemed to think they were relevant in this particular case), but there was far less consensus on the actual limits. Where is the Court headed and what will it mean for Trump’s prosecution? “Live and Let Modi.”

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were finally reunited to talk through the week’s big natsec stories, including:“First is the Worst.” The historic first criminal trial of a former president has commenced in New York state courts. Both sides have sketched out their cases in opening arguments. What will the charges being brought against former President Trump relating to alleged hush money payments on his behalf mean for him and his 2024 presidential campaign?“Fair Whither Friend.” After months of delay that have, by some accounts, pushed Ukraine dangerously close to defeat, the House has finally passed legislation that would provide them with essential foreign assistance, alongside other aid packages for Israel and Taiwan as well as a handful of related foreign affairs measures. What is good, bad, and ugly about the package that finally got through? And what do the dynamics of its passage mean for other U.S. foreign policy interests in the near term?“The Clock is Tocking.” Among the side measures passed by t

This week, Alan and Quinta sat down with Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Ayatollahs and Airstrikes.” In retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed several high-ranking Iranian military officers in Syria, over the weekend Iran launched a wave of drone and missile attacks against Israel. The vast majority of these were shot down by Israel and its allies, including notably Jordan, causing minimal injuries and damage in Israel. As Israel considers whether to respond, its American and European allies are putting pressure on it to deescalate. What’s Israel’s next move and can broader regional war be avoided?“Beginning of the end or just the end of the beginning?” It has been six months since Hamas’s attack on October 7 and the start of Israel’s war in Gaza, which appears to be entering a new, potentially lower-intensity phase. Israel has withdrawn most of its troops from southern Gaza, although it still argues that it needs to invade Rafah

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined again by Brookings Senior Fellow and Lawfare Senior Editor Molly Reynolds to talk over the week’s national security news, including:“The 702nd Time’s the Charm?” Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act was originally set to expire on December 31, 2023. But somehow, Congress has managed to keep kicking the can down the road—and we’re once again in the middle of an argument about whether and to what extent the legislature should reform the bulk surveillance authority. How did we end up here, and is there any indication that Congress will manage to pass a lasting reauthorization in some form this time around?“Magic Mike.” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson’s troubles don’t stop with FISA, however. He’s also tangled up in a prolonged dispute with his caucus over the U.S. aid to Ukraine—which is becoming a matter of rapidly increasing urgency, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warning that his country “will lose the war” if the aid is not approved. J

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“A Gag Order Prevents Me From Telling You What This Segment Is Called.” After former President Donald Trump attacked the daughter of Justice Juan Merchan, who is overseeing his New York hush-money trial, Justice Merchan expanded the gag order he had previously imposed to prohibit Trump from attacking his family. This is only the latest in what has become a pattern of Trump testing gag orders in his many legal cases. Why have gag orders become such an important part of the Trump cases and how far should they reach?“The Global Importance of the Middle East Is That It Keeps the Far East and the Near East From Encroaching on Each Other.” Even by the standards of the last few months, it’s been a particular busy week in Israel. In just 48 hours, an Israeli strike in Syria killed high-level Iranian military officials, another strike in Gaza killed several aid workers in a

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined again by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman—also of Georgetown University and the Center for Strategic and International Studies— to talk over the week’s national security news, including:“Terror in Moscow.” On Friday, March 22, a group of gunmen unleashed an attack on a concert hall outside Moscow that killed over 130 people, shooting into a crowd of concertgoers before setting the hall on fire. The Islamic State in Khorasan, the Afghanistan branch of ISIS known as ISIS-K, quickly claimed credit for the attack, and Russian authorities have arrested four suspects. The Kremlin, without evidence, has also continued to hint that Ukraine is somehow responsible. What does the attack tell us about ISIS-K, and what does it mean for the Russian government?“April, Come She Will.” After a brief delay, Donald Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan has been scheduled to begin on April 15—the first of Trump’s criminal cases to go to tr

This week, Alan and Quinta were joined by Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Lawfare Legal Fellow and Courts Correspondent Anna Bower to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“No v. Wade.” The long saga of the personal relationship between Fani Willis, the Fulton County District Attorney prosecuting Donald Trump for election interference, and Nathan Wade, the prosecutor Willis put in charge of the case, hit an inflection point when Judge Scott McAfee, who is overseeing the criminal case, ruled that, though there was no actual conflict of interest, “the appearance of impropriety remains,” and ordered Willis to either recuse herself from the case or to remove Wade from his role as prosecutor. Wade promptly resigned, clearing the way for the case to continue. Is this the right resolution to the controversy, and what does it say about the future of the Fulton County case, especially if Trump appeals and tries to force Willis’s disqualification?“Pleading the Fifth…Circuit.” In a sign

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together for the last time before Scott’s paternity leave to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Kitchen Table Issues.” President Biden delivered a feisty State of the Union last week, one that took aim at both those worrying about his age and his apparent 2024 rival, former President Donald Trump. But what does his handling of key national security issues, ranging from Ukraine to Gaza, tell us about where the country is headed, and what can we gather from the response from the other party?“Tik Tik Tik...” The end may be nigh for TikTok in the United States, at least in its current incarnation. The House has passed a bill that will ban TikTok from app stores beginning in the Fall unless its Chinese owners divest—legislation that President Biden has said he will sign, but that former President Trump recently flipped on. Where is this new major social media platform headed, at least in the United States?“Trying to Stay Alive.” Policymakers

This week, Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien joined Alan, Quinta, and Scott to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“Operation Humbled Drop.” After months of unsuccessfully pushing the Israeli government to allow more aid into besieged Gaza, the Biden administration has taken matters into its own hands and begun airlifting it in itself. But are its efforts just for show, or a sign that it is abandoning its “bear hug” approach to Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu? And what will it mean for the flow of U.S. assistance to Israel, especially given legal restrictions Israel’s actions arguably violate? “Sound (Legal Reasoning) and Fury(ous Agreement).” This week, the Supreme Court surprised no one by unanimously reversing the Colorado Supreme Court and holding that former President Trump cannot be kept off the 2024 ballot there for having committed insurrection through his involvement in Jan. 6—a move the justices had strongly telegraphed in oral arguments in February. But for a una

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Molly Reynolds and (a prerecorded) Anna Bower to talk through some of the week’s big national security news, including:“The Shutdown Rut.” Congress once again has the government on the verge of a shutdown. And while Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has reportedly committed to avoiding one, demands from within his caucus may make that hard—just as they continue to obstruct a path forward for the national security supplemental that contains essential assistance for Ukraine. Is there a way forward? Or are we shutdown-bound?“Sex, Lies, and Geolocation.” The criminal case against former President Trump and more than a dozen codefendants in Fulton County, Georgia, remains on hold as defense attorneys continue to dig into the details of Fani Willis’s romantic relationship with subordinate Nathan Wade. Over the last week, we’ve seen filings on geolocation data and the examination of Wade’s former attorney. But does any of this add up to a potentially disqualifying conf

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Is Revanchism a Dish Best Served Cold?” Russia boosters seem to be feeling bullish for the first time in a long time. This week, its forces captured the strategic town of Avdiivka from Ukrainian forces, who have been weakened by bickering among their Western allies. And imprisoned Russian dissident Alexei Navalny met with a tragic and highly suspicious end, just as Western governments came together at the Munich Security Conference. Is Russia right to be feeling its oats at this moment?“Bibi Steps.” As Israel prepares to mount a controversial military operation against Rafah—the last refuge for many displaced civilians in Gaza—there are cracks between the government of Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and the Biden administration, who in recent weeks have shown an increased willingness to target settler violence in the West Bank with sanctions, impose some conditionality on U.S. security assistance, and

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were once again joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“Constitutional Annoyance.” Last week, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Trump v. Anderson, the case weighing whether former President Trump’s involvement in Jan. 6 should disqualify him from being able to stand as a candidate in 2024 under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. And the justices, for once, seemed almost unified in their skepticism of the idea that he should be—though there was far less agreement as to why. Where is this case headed? And what will its ultimate impact be on the 2024 election and beyond?“Putting the Hur(t) On.” Special Counsel Robert Hur completed his investigation into President Biden’s alleged mishandling of classified documents last week and, while he opted not to bring any charges, his lengthy final report has caused a stir: not just for laying out Biden’s apparent mishandling of classified documents over an extended

This week, Alan made his long-awaited return to the podcast for a (brief, so savor it) reunion with Quinta and Scott to talk over the week’s big national security news, including:“Losing the Immunity Challenge.” Earlier this week, the D.C. Circuit rejected former President Trump’s attempt to appeal the denial of his claims of presidential immunity to criminal charges arising from Jan. 6. That issue is now primed for the Supreme Court. Will it take it up? And what will it decide?“Ordeal or No Deal.” As Israel’s military offensive in Gaza continues, the United States is trying to facilitate a short-term hostage deal—and a longer term bargain that would incorporate Israel and Saudi Arabia into a security pact. How realistic are these proposals? And how might they impact the dynamics of the Gaza conflict?“The Shakedown Breakdown.” Congressional Republicans who once insisted on tying Ukraine assistance to a border deal have now turned against any effort to hash out a border deal—even as House Republicans have also

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes to talk over the meaty week of national security news, including: “The Neighborhood is Getting Worse.” Three American service members were killed in a drone attack committed by Iran-backed militias in Jordan this past weekend. The Biden administration has promised a military response, but one of the groups believed to be responsible has just declared a unilateral ceasefire, seemingly at Iran’s urging. How should the United States respond? And what will the regional ramifications be?“Don’t Seek Redress in Texas.” Texas governor Greg Abbott has opted to ignore a federal court ruling demanding that he take down barriers on the Rio Grande, on the basis of a novel (and highly dubious) legal theory asserting that the state has the exclusive constitutional authority to defend itself from invasion by migrants. How should the Biden administration respond?“Provisional Victory?” The International Court of Justice has issued provision