A16z Podcast

Is non-consensus investing overrated—or the secret to venture returns?a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg is joined by Martín Casado (General Partner, a16z) and Leo Polovets (General Partner, Humba Ventures) to unpack the debate that lit up venture Twitter/X: should founders and VCs chase consensus, or run from it?They explore what “consensus” really means in practice, how market efficiency shapes venture outcomes, why most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation, and the risks founders face when they’re too far outside consensus. Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 01:04 Defining Consensus and Market Efficiency06:30 The Role of Hot Rounds and Market Signals10:25 Founder Perspective: Risks of Non-Consensus13:19 Investor Perspective: Indigestion vs. Starvation18:28 Market Cycles & Sector Hype23:55 The Evolution of Venture Market Efficiency26:29 Case Studies & Personal Anecdotes33:02 Fund Size, Ownership, and the Impact on Strategy51:40 The Future of Venture: Multi-Stage vs. Seed Funds Resources: Find