Nightly Business Report

Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his semi-annual testimony before the Senate baking committee, saying the Fed will “stay the course until the job is done.”That could include higher interest rates than previously anticipated, and a quicker pace of hikes. And that has stocks selling off today. We’ll tell you all you need to know.

Stocks are higher, even as the yield curve flashes a worsening recession warning. Are investors growing complacent? Will Jerome Powell address it on Capitol Hill?It’s a big week for the markets & the economy, and we’ll get you ready for it with how to be positioned for success.Plus, the White House is expected to crack down further on investments in China, but details are scant. So should investors buy or bail? We’ll debate.And, Amazon has underperformed the QQQs by 50% since its pandemic peak. Amid growing headwinds, how should you trade the stock? We’ll have a bull vs. bear debate.

Everyone’s talking about whether or not the Fed needs to take interest rates to 6% now. But what if even that number is too low?According to the “Taylor Rule,” rates should be headed towards 10%. Is that really feasible? We’ll ask “Taylor Rule” creator John Taylor himself.Plus, office REITs have been crushed by rising rates and slowing demand. But there’s one better positioned than the rest. We’ll reveal the name.And, Kyle Bass is calling Xi Jinping’s latest moves “installing a war cabinet.” So should you stay away from investing in China? We’ll debate.

Kelly explains why the traditional portfolio might not survive in this economic environment.

Is the Fed making decisions based on increasingly imprecise jobs data? One of our guests says “yes.” We’ll look at the issues, and potential fallout for markets & the economy.Plus, Europe has a major inflation problem. Experts have warned to stay away, but that’s not stopping our guests from investing there. They’ll tell us where they see opportunity.And, Matt Higgins of RSE Ventures joins us in studio to talk about his VC investments, his new book, and whether Momofuku would ever go public.

Tesla holding its investor day, but could Tesla’s current competitive advantage become its weakness? The long-time best-performer on the S&P citing forex headwinds in its Q4…we’ve got some names that hold up better during dollar dominance.  Plus, 15 ways to play AI from Bank of America. 

Kelly explains why the Fed could continue tightening much, more more.

One of the few issues with bipartisan support in congress is heading for prime. Tonight will mark the first hearing from the House Select Committee on strategic competition between the U.S & China.We’ll explain the key national security concerns at stake, and why the chief economist of the China beige book says these are baby steps in solving our problems.Plus, China’s reopening is giving stocks in that region a boost, and sparking global growth hopes. But MKM’s Michael Darda disagrees. He’ll join us to explain why he’s skeptical on China, and Europe too.And, $400 billion in student loan debt is in the crosshairs of the Supreme Court, with the first steps toward loan forgiveness now underway. We’ve got the latest details.

Kelly explains why the small business boom may be coming to an end, and what that means for the broader economy.

Do rates actually matter to the stock matter anymore? One of our guests says “yes,” and that yields need to stop rising to trigger a new bull market.But our own Michael Santoli says it doesn’t quite work like that. He’ll join us to explain why, and make his case.Plus, why have markets and the economy held up so well in spite of these massive Fed hikes? David Zervos of Jefferies has a theory on that. Here’s a hint: it equals about 40% of GDP.

Inflation was trending lower…until today. So will the Fed now shift to full ‘attack mode?’ We’ll explore all the scenarios, and what they mean for markets & the economy.Plus, what would ‘attack mode’ do to housing? New home sales just hit their highest level in nearly a year, but could the Fed kill that momentum? We’ll discuss.And, Wall Street has been loving AI stocks lately. But how do you separate real promise from hype? We’ll look at some not-so-obvious ways to play AI technology. 

It’s just hawks and more hawks at the Fed now…so how much higher will rates go? How fast will the Fed get there? And what does it mean for the markets? We’ll debate.Plus, with the reopening underway, is now the time to invest in China? Foreign policy experts and investors disagree. We’ll speak to one long-time China watcher who really surprised us the last time he was on the show. And, natural gas prices have plunged since September. We look at what’s driving the declines and when consumers could see lower heating bills.   

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard just reiterated his call to hike rates north of 5% to beat inflation. How many other Fed officials agree? We’ll set you up for Fed minutes due out shortly, which could give us a clue.Plus, one expert says high inflation is leading some companies to suffer from “money illusion”…and it’s one reason why layoffs haven’t hit just yet. We’ll look at what that means for markets.And, shares of Wingstop are soaring nearly 10% after earnings. We’ll talk to the CEO about the disinflation he’s seeing. And we’ll also hear from the Travel + Leisure CEO about the high demand he’s still seeing, too.

Kelly explains why Covid-era stimulus spending is still effecting consumers & the economy today.

Walmart & Home Depot have both given disappointing outlooks for the year. Walmart’s CFO warns the consumer is “very pressured.” We’ll speak with an expert who says there will be no “landing” for the economy until there’s a hard landing.Plus, why has none of this been bad news for the stock market today? We’ll speak with an expert who insists the 2023 rally can continue, despite today’s sell-off. He’ll answer some viewer questions, too.And, it’s all about rates, retail and risk-on in a fresh edition of ‘Earnings Exchange.’ We’ll give you the action, the story and the trade in TJX Companies, Toll Brothers & Coinbase ahead of results.

Kelly explains why the recent market rally shouldn’t be taken lightly.

Kelly explains why just because it’s taking a while, doesn’t mean a recession is off the table.

Kelly digs into the details of the latest inflation report.

Kelly highlights how data continues to hold up relatively well, despite the Fed’s massive tightening strategy.

Is a half point rate hike now in play? Two Fed officials are making the case for it. But one of our guests says things aren’t as strong as they seem. He’ll join us to explain where he sees the Fed heading next. Plus, our market expert says if you think the recent rally is premature…it’s not! He says it all makes perfect sense, and he’ll join us to explain why & what he’s buying here. And, retail heavyweights like Walmart and Home Depot are set to report earnings next week. We’ll look at 4 names in the space to “shop or drop” ahead of results.