Macro Musings

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to look back on his contributions to monetary policy research with the Mercatus Center and elsewhere, as well as discuss his upcoming book, Alternative Approaches to Monetary Policy. In particular, Scott and David discuss how the Fed’s monetary policy mistakes in 2008 impacted the direction of Scott’s research, the theory and prospects for a nominal GDP futures contract, the future of monetary policy in the Eurozone and whether the ECB has gotten more hawkish, how changing macroeconomic conditions across history help explain the changing popularity of particular policy models, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Scott’s Twitter: @ScottSumnerTMI Scott’s blog Scott’s Mercatus profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   “Nominal GDP

Hanno Lustig is a professor of finance at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Hanno is also a former guest on Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about fiscal dominance, global inflation, interest rates, wealth and equality, and Eurozone challenges. David and Hanno also discuss how to reconcile Treasury yield movements with impending fiscal dominance, why we’re seeing a long-term decline in real interest rates, the early trends in post-pandemic inflation, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Hanno’s Twitter: @HannoLustig Hanno’s Stanford profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn’t Bark* by Hanno Lustig, Zhengyang Jiang, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan   *US Government Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Hanno

Josh Younger is currently a managing director and global head of ALM research and strategy at JP Morgan, and previously spent over a decade as a senior market strategist focused on interest rate and money markets. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the current state of the Treasury market and various reforms that have recently been proposed for it. Specifically, Josh and David discuss the history and evolving structure of the Treasury market, the emergence of high frequency trading firms over the past decade, the factors behind the 2020 dash for cash, current stresses on the Treasury market, as well as potential reforms for the market going forward.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!

Carola Binder is an associate professor of economics at Haverford College and is currently a visiting scholar in the Monetary Policy Program at the Mercatus Center. She is also an associate editor at the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Money Credit and Banking. Carola rejoins Macro Musings to talk about inflation expectations and uncertainty. Specifically, David and Carola discuss why we should care about inflation expectations, which survey measures are most important, how policymakers should respond, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Carola’s Twitter: @cconces Carola’s Haverford site Carola’s Mercatus profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *Consumer Inflation Uncertainty Is Rising* by Carola Binder   *Stuck in the Seventies: Gas Prices and Consumer Sentiment* by Carola Binder and Christos Makridis   *Inflation Expectations

Jeffrey Lacker is a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, where he served as its head from 2004 to 2017, and more recently served as a distinguished professor of economics at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Business through 2022. Currently, Jeff serves on the Shadow Open Market Committee. He joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the traditions of the Richmond Fed, the history of the Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target prior to 2012, the two percent inflation target the Fed formalized in 2012, the more recent transition to an average inflation target, what the Fed should consider during its next comprehensive framework review, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Jeffrey’s website Jeffrey’s Richmond Fed profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *A Look Back at the Consensus Statement* By Jeffrey Lacker  

Gerard DiPippo is a senior fellow with the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he spent 11 years in the US intelligence community as a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council and as a senior economic analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, David and Gerard discuss the recent Senate report which details the Chinese Government’s decade-long campaign to infiltrate the US Federal Reserve System. Gerard brings his expertise in both national security and monetary policy to this conversation with David to shed some light on this news story.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Gerard’s Twitter: @gdp1985 Gerard’s CSIS profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *China Targeted Fed to Build Informant Network and Ac

Gerard DiPippo is a senior fellow with the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he spent 11 years in the US intelligence community as a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council and as a senior economic analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. Gerard joins Macro Musings to talk about the Russia Sanctions, the global monetary system, demographics, and other economic issues viewed through the lens of national security. He and David also discuss the lessons from the Russia sanctions, dollar dominance as a disciplinary tool, the implications of global population decline, why economic security means national security, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Gerard’s Twitter: @gdp1985 Gerard’s CSIS profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *Strangling the Bea

Tom Graff is the head of investments for Facet Wealth and has several decades leading fixed income departments. Tom joins David on Macro Musings to provide his thoughts on the recent FOMC meeting, the Q2 2022 GDP numbers and their implications for the economy, and the future path of Fed policy. Specifically, David and Tom discuss the recent GDP numbers from Q2 2022, the merits of public concerns over a recession, takeaways from the July FOMC meeting, interest rate theory and implicit forecasts of inflation, the fiscal theory of the price level, the continued importance of the Fed’s framework, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Tom’s Twitter: @tdgraff Tom’s Facet Wealth profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   Real GDP Numbers updated for Q2 2022   Federal Open Market Committee: July 26-27, 2022 FOMC Meeting

Ellen Meade is a research professor of economics at Duke University and a veteran of the Federal Reserve System. Most recently, Ellen served as a special advisor to the board and Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Ellen joins David on Macro Musings to discuss her research on monetary policy and her work at the Federal Reserve. Specifically, Ellen and David discuss the prospect of central bank independence at the Fed and the specter of fiscal dominance, the recent history of secrecy and transparency at the Fed and how that impacts the incentives to dissent, the effect of the Fed’s forward guidance on recent policy events, what lessons from the past two years the Fed should incorporate into its next framework review, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Ellen’s Vox EU profile Ellen’s Research Gate archive   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Evolution of

Randal Quarles is the executive chairman of the Cynosure Group and the former Vice Chair of Supervision for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Randy also served as an official in the US Department of Treasury, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about his time at the Federal Reserve and his thoughts on current issues facing the institution. David and Randy also discuss how the Fed fell behind the curve on inflation, how he sees the balance sheet reduction process playing out, the central bank’s shifting focus toward climate change, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Randal’s Cynosure profile Randal’s Federal Reserve profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *Between the Hither and the Farther Shore: Thoughts on Unfinished Business* by Randal Quarles

Kathy Jones is managing director and chief fixed income strategist for the Schwab Center for Financial Research, and she has spent many years on Wall Street, covering bond markets and foreign exchange. Kathy joins Macro Musings to talk about the present outlook for the economy, the state of markets, and Fed policy. Specifically, David and Kathy discuss the story behind the recent economic slowdown, why equity markets are behind the recessionary curve, Kathy’s sense on QT moving forward, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Kathy’s Twitter: @KathyJones Kathy’s Charles Schwab profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!

Michael Dooley is a chief economist for Figure Technologies and a 20-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System and the IMF. Michael is also a professor emeritus in the department of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about the international monetary system and the future of the dollar. Specifically, David and Michael also discuss the original and revised Bretton Woods systems, the Fed’s role as a monetary superpower, and what this means for the US as a provider of safe and unsafe assets.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Michael’s UC Santa Cruz profile Michael’s NBER archive   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *US Sanctions Reinforce the Dollar’s Dominance* by Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, and Peter Garber   *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetz

Brian Knight is the Director of Innovation and Governance at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. Brian’s research focuses on numerous aspects of financial regulation, including the creation of pro-innovation regulatory environments, the role of federalism in fintech regulation, the use of digital assets for financial transactions, the role of regulation for credit markets and consumer protection, and the provision of capital to businesses. Brian joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the politicization of finance and its implications for policy. Specifically, Brian and David discuss the concept of reputational risk and its relevance for financial regulation, the extent and limits of ESG concerns in financial regulation, whether financial regulators are too political or not political enough, the present state as well as the future of ‘woke capitalism’, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Brian’s Twitter: @BrianRKnight Brian’s Mercatus profile   David’s Twitter: @David

Lev Menand is an associate professor of law at Columbia University Law School and writes widely on legal issues surrounding the Federal Reserve. Lev rejoins Macro Musings to talk about his new book titled, *The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis.* Specifically, David and Lev discuss why the Fed can be considered unbound, the history of the Fed’s engagement with the shadow banking system, and Lev’s solutions for reform.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Lev’s Twitter: @LevMenand Lev’s Columbia Law profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *The Fed Unbound: Central Banking in a Time of Crisis* by Lev Menand   *Unappropriated Dollars: The Fed’s Ad Hoc Lending Facilities and the Rules That Govern Them* by Lev Menand

George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute. He is also the most frequent guest on Macro Musings, now appearing for his 12th time. In this episode, George and David identify and discuss their top three articles from the past few weeks related to macroeconomics and monetary policy. Specifically, George and Selgin discuss Lael Brainard’s recent speech defending the Fed’s prospects of issuing central bank digital currency, Janet Yellen’s concession about the path that inflation has taken, the governmental accounting of Federal Reserve losses and whether they amount to a net taxpayer burden, why the Dollar remains firm as the dominant currency in global markets, how an orthodox corridor system defaults into a floor system during times of crisis, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato profile   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_

Christine McDaniel is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center where she focuses on trade and intellectual property rights issues. Christine previously held several positions in the US government, including deputy assistant secretary at the Treasury Department and senior trade economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisors. She has also worked in the economic offices of the US Department of Commerce, US Trade Representative, and the US International Trade Commission. Christine rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the economic sanctions applied to Russia, and their implication for the Russian economy and globalization more generally. Specifically, David and Christine also discuss the structure and effectiveness of the Russia sanctions, the war’s heavy impact on food shortages, the role of dollar dominance in geopolitics, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Christine’s Twitter: @christinemcdan Christine’s Mercatus profil

Manmohan Singh is a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund and works on rehypothecation, shadow banking, the plumbing of the monetary system, and more. Manmohan joins Macro Musings to talk about stablecoins, central bank balance sheets, central bank digital currencies, and their broader implication for central banks. David and Manmohan specifically discuss the role and structure of stablecoins, the impact of collateral within the financial system, how the Fed have looked to address plumbing issues within this system, and more.   Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Manmohan’s VoxEU profile: https://voxeu.org/users/manmohansingh0 Manmohan’s Risk.net archive: https://www.risk.net/author/manmohan-singh   Related Links:   *Interoperability of Stablecoins* by Manmohan Singh, Caitlin Long, and Charles Kahn https://www.centralbanking.com/fintech/7892256/interoperability-of-stablecoins   *How to

Bill Nelson is the Chief Economist and an Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute. Bill previously was a deputy director at the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS on the design of liquidity regulation. Bill joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the Fed's balance sheet, its reduction plans and how the Fed fell behind the curve. Specifically, David and Bill get into whether the Fed regretted its premature tightening period from 2015 to 2018, how the Fed’s focus on the baseline outlook left it not resilient to alternative developments, how concerns over another taper tantrum impacted the Fed’s decision-making, the Fed’s handling of its FAIT framework, and much more. Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musing

Josh Hendrickson is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Mississippi and Chair of the Economics Department. Josh joins David on Macro Musings to discuss US monetary policy and US defense policy. Specifically, Josh and David discuss the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy and what Milton Friedman would think of it today, the Fed’s responsibility for modern inflation trends, state capacity and how it impacts economic growth, the role of national defense in the context of state capacity and economic growth, and much more.   Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Josh’s Twitter: @RebelEconProf Josh’s Ole Miss profile: https://economics.olemiss.edu/joshua-hendrickson/   Related Links:   *Central Banks are Inflation Creators, Not Inflation Fighters* by Joshua R. Hendrickson https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/central-banks-are-inflation-creators-not-inflation-fighter

Peter Ireland is a professor of economics at Boston College, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Shadow Open Market Committee. Peter has also been a visiting scholar at numerous Federal Reserve Banks and is a returning guest to the podcast. He rejoins Macro Musings to talk about U.S. monetary policy during the pandemic and what the path forward looks like for the Fed and the policy landscape. David and Peter also discuss the current state of macroeconomics, including the most influential and popular business cycle theories, the present direction of policy macro, and whether or not the Fed’s current framework should shoulder blame for its pandemic policy missteps.     Take the Macro Musings listener survey here.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Peter’s Twitter: @PIrelandEcon Peter’s Boston College profile: https://www.bc.edu/bc-web/schools/mcas/departments/economics/people/faculty-directory/p