Macro Musings

Don Boudreaux is a professor of economics at George Mason University as well as the co-director of the Program on the American Economy and Globalization at the Mercatus Center. He joins the show today to talk about the future of trade and globalization. David and Don also discuss the history of protectionism in the US, President Trump’s trade policies, and why the China Shock thesis may signal bad economics. Don’s blog: https://cafehayek.com/ Don’s Mercatus Profile: https://www.mercatus.org/donald-j-boudreaux Related Links: *Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy* by Doug Irwin https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html *Tariffs, Immigration, and Economic Insulation: A New View of the U.S. Post-Civil War Era*by Cecil Bohanon and Norman Van Cott https://www.jstor.org/stable/24562083?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents *The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade* by David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson https://www.nber.org/papers/

Nick Bunker is an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab where he focuses on the U.S. labor market and was previously a senior policy analyst at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, an economics think tank. Nick joins the show today to talk about the U.S. labor market and how the government measures unemployment. David and Nick also discuss the decreasing trend of male participation in the labor force, declining labor mobility, and the importance of a larger public database for labor data. Nick’s Twitter: @nick_bunker Nick’s Indeed profile: https://www.hiringlab.org/author/nbunker/ Related Links: *Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects* by Stephanie Aaronson et al. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Fall2014BPEA_Aaronson_et_al.pdf *The Long-Term Decline in Prime-Age Male Labor Force Participation* by the Council of Economic Advisers https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160620_cea_primeage_male_lfp.pdf David’s blog: macromarketm

Rob Kaplan is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Previously, he was a professor and associate dean at Harvard Business School and a vice chairman at Goldman Sachs. Rob joins the show today to talk about his career, the Dallas Fed, and U.S. monetary policy. David and Rob also discuss the inner workings of the FOMC, the future of the Fed’s operating system, and lessons to be learned from the 2008 Financial Crisis. Rob also shares his thoughts on alternative monetary regimes, including nominal GDP targeting. Rob’s Twitter: @RobSKaplan Rob’s Dallas Fed profile: https://www.dallasfed.org/en/fed/bios/kaplan.aspx David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Transcript to this week's episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/robert-kaplan-fomc-dallas-fed-and-lessons-great-recession

Jared Bernstein is a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and previously served as chief economist and economic advisor to Vice President Joe Biden in the Obama Administration. Jared also writes regularly for the Washington Post. David and Jared discuss a wide range of topics including fiscal stimulus, the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, subsidized employment programs, Trump’s trade agenda, and the direction of economic policy after the 2018 midterm elections. Jared’s Twitter: @econjared Jared’s Washington Post profile: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/jared-bernstein/?utm_term=.23a83717b1c3 Related Links: *Populism and the Economics of Globalization* by Dani Rodrik https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/populism_and_the_economics_of_globalization.pdf *Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, & Christoph Trebesch https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/1115_eer_slides_sep2016_shor

Will Luther is an assistant professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University and is the director of the Sound Money Project at the American Institute for Economic Research. Will is also an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins today to talk about a recent debate over the future of cash and the current state of cryptocurrencies. David and Will also discuss the implications of issuing “supernotes” (like $500 and $1000 bills), the existence of stable coins as cryptocurrencies, and opening up the Fed’s balance sheet to the general public. Will’s Twitter: @WilliamJLuther Will’s website: http://www.wluther.com/ Related Links: *Cash, Crime, and Civil Liberties*, A collection of essays by J.P. Koning, Joshua Hendrickson, Will Luther, and James McAndrews https://www.cato-unbound.org/issues/august-2018/cash-crime-civil-liberties *Moneyness*, J.P. Koning’s blog http://jpkoning.blogspot.com/ *The Stable Coin Myth* by Barry Eichengreen https://www.project-syndicate.

Sam Hammond is a policy analyst and covers topics in poverty and welfare for the Niskanen Center. Sam is a previous guest on Macro Musings, and he joins the show today to talk about his new article in National Review which addresses Senator Elizabeth Warren’s new proposal, the Accountable Capitalism Act, and its potentially negative effects. David and Sam also discuss the problematic stereotypes surrounding ‘corporate bigness’, the positive and negative features of co-determination, and why we need universal safety nets. Sam’s Twitter: @hamandcheese Sam’s Medium profile: https://medium.com/@hamandcheese Related Links: *Elizabeth Warren’s Corporate Catastrophe* by Sam Hammond https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/08/elizabeth-warren-accountable-capitalism-act-terrible-idea/ *Big is Beautiful: Debunking the Myth of Small Business* by Robert Atkinson and Michael Lind https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/big-beautiful *Concentration in US Labor Markets: Evidence from Online Vacancy Data* by Ioana Marinescu, Marshall Stei

Brad Setser is a senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations where he works on macroeconomics, global capital flows, and financial crises. Brad also served as a deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Treasury Department from 2011 to 2015 where he worked on Europe’s financial crisis, currency policy, financial sanctions, commodity shocks, and Puerto Rico’s debt crisis. Brad joins the show today to talk about global economic imbalances and why we should care about them. David and Brad also discuss emerging market tensions in Turkey, the implications of running current account deficits, and the economic dangers accompanying the existence of a monetary superpower. Brad’s blog: https://www.cfr.org/blog/Setser Brad’s Twitter: @Brad_Setser Related Links: *Putin’s Unlikely Ally in His Standoff With the West: His Central Banker* by Anatoly Kurmanaev https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-unlikely-ally-in-his-standoff-with-the-west-his-central-banker-1534773380 *Exchange Arrangements Ente

Adam Posen is the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and was formerly senior fellow at the Bank of England, helping set monetary policy between 2009 and 2012. Adam has also worked at the New York Federal Reserve, has advised many central banks and governments, and is an accomplished scholar in the field of macroeconomics. He joins the show today to discuss some of his research as well as the work of the Peterson Institute. David and Adam also discuss central bank independence, trade policy under the Trump regime, and the differences between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Adam’s Twitter: @AdamPosen Adam’s Peterson Institute profile: https://piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/adam-s-posen Related Links: *Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience* by Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic Mishkin, & Adam Posen https://press.princeton.edu/titles/6380.html *The Post-American World Economy: Globalization in the Trump Era* by Adam Posen https://

Sebastian Edwards is a professor of economics at UCLA, and is a former chief economist for the World Bank. He joins the show today to talk about his new book, *American Default: The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and A Battle over Gold*. Sebastian and David also discuss Roosevelt’s plan to ease the U.S. off the gold standard, his attempts to fix the banking sector, and the details and implications of the Gold Clause Cases. Sebastian’s UCLA profile: http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/sebastian.edwards/ Sebastian’s NBER archive: http://www.nber.org/people/sebastian_edwards Related Links: *American Default: The Untold Story of FDR, the Supreme Court, and A Battle over Gold* by Sebastian Edwards https://press.princeton.edu/titles/11230.html David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Tim Duy is a professor of economics at the University of Oregon, a columnist for Bloomberg, and a former economist at the U.S. Department of Treasury. Tim is also a widely read Fed watcher and a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins the show today to talk about yield curves, Federal Reserve policy, and the future of the Jay Powell Fed. David and Tim also discuss the economic implications of a yield curve inversion, the possibility of new monetary regimes being introduced during Powell’s tenure, and how to combat groupthink at the Fed. Tim’s Twitter: @TimDuy Tim’s blog: http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/ Related Links: *Kashkari Isn’t Buying ‘This Time Is Different’ for Yield Curve* by Jeanna Smialek https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-16/kashkari-isn-t-buying-this-time-is-different-for-yield-curve *Sorry, Mr. Trump, But You Had Your Chance for A More Dovish Fed* by Adam Ozimek https://www.forbes.com/sites/modeledbehavior/2018/07/22/sorry-mr-trump-but-you-had-your-chance-for-a-more-dovi

Josh Hendrickson is an associate professor of economics at the University of Mississippi, where he specializes in monetary economics. He also writes for his blog, The Everyday Economist. Josh is a returning guest to the show, and he joins today to talk about his new paper, *Monetary Policy as a Jobs Guarantee*. David and Josh discuss how monetary policy can be better outsourced to the market as well as the Fed’s past mistakes, and what it can do to improve in the future. Josh’s Twitter: @RebelEconProf Josh’s blog: https://everydayecon.wordpress.com/ Related Links: *Monetary Policy as a Jobs Guarantee* by Josh Hendrickson https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-jobs-guarantee *What Measure of Inflation Should A Central Bank Target?* by Greg Mankiw and Ricardo Reis https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp170.pdf?5a6c189e978749a5299b76ab370771e5 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Tim Lee is a senior reporter for Ars Technica covering tech policy, blockchain technologies, and the future of transportation. Tim was formerly with Vox, where he covered tech issues and the economy. He joins the show today to discuss technological innovation, economic growth, and implications for policy. David and Tim also discuss the radical changes coming to transportation, the uncertain future of productivity growth, and how society should respond to the structural changes that may accompany further technological advancement. Tim’s Twitter: @binarybits Tim’s Ars Technica profile: https://arstechnica.com/author/timlee/ Related Links: *9 Radical Changes that are Coming to Transportation* by Tim Lee https://www.vox.com/new-money/2017/4/26/15363592/tesla-uber-google-waymo-spacex-innovation *Self-driving Technology is Going to Change A Lot More Than Cars* by Tim Lee https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/05/self-driving-technology-is-going-to-change-a-lot-more-than-cars/ *Electric, Self-flying, Vertical Takeoff Tax

Kevin Erdmann is an independent researcher and blogger at Idiosyncratic Whisk, where he explores economic and financial topics such as housing, investment, and speculation. He is also the author of an upcoming book titled, *Locked Out: How the Shortage of Urban Housing is Wrecking our Economy*, and he joins the show today to discuss it. Contrary to popular belief, Kevin argues we built too few houses not too many, during the housing bubble. David and Kevin break down this housing shortage problem, as they explore how the limited supply of housing in closed access cities may have helped fuel the Great Recession. Kevin’s Twitter: @KAErdmann Kevin’s blog: http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com/ Related Links: *A Slide Deck on the Bubble and Crisis* by Kevin Erdmann http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com/p/a-slide-deck-on-bubble-and-crisis.html *Housing: Part 238 – Home Price Changes Over Time* by Kevin Erdmann http://idiosyncraticwhisk.blogspot.com/2017/06/housing-part-238-home-price-changes.html *Housing Constr

Morgan Ricks is a law professor at Vanderbilt University and studies financial regulation. Between 2009 and 2010, he was a senior policy advisor and financial restructuring expert at the U.S. Department of Treasury, where he focused primarily on financial stability initiatives and capital market policy in response to the Financial Crisis. Morgan is a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he joins the show today to discuss his most recent paper, *Central Banking for All: A Public Option for Bank Accounts*. David and Morgan also discuss the features and changes that come with Fed bank accounts, how these accounts would positively affect low income families, and how this system could be created. Morgan’s Twitter: @MorganRicks1 Morgan’s Vanderbilt profile: https://law.vanderbilt.edu/bio/morgan-ricks Related Links: *Central Banking for All: A Public Option for Bank Accounts* by Morgan Ricks, John Crawford, and Lev Menand https://greatdemocracyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/FedAccountsGDI.pdf David’s blo

Ashoka Mody is a professor of international economic policy at Princeton University and formerly worked at the IMF and the World Bank. He joins the show today to discuss his new book, *EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts*. David and Ashoka also delve deep into the history of the Euro, as they discuss its complicated political origins and why its creation may have been a mistake. Ashoka’s Twitter: @AshokaMody Ashoka’s Princeton profile: https://scholar.princeton.edu/amody/home Related Links: *EuroTragedy: A Drama in Nine Acts* by Ashoka Mody https://global.oup.com/academic/product/eurotragedy-9780199351381?cc=us&lang=en& *EMU and International Conflict* by Martin Feldstein https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/1997-11-01/emu-and-international-conflict David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Monica de Bolle is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University. Monica is published widely on the subject of Latin American economies, and she joins the show today to explain some of the recent financial and economic developments in Argentina and Venezuela. David and Monica also analyze the political atmosphere and policy environment that led to Argentina’s current economic hardships and discuss where the country might be if they had not pursued such policies. Monica’s Twitter: @bollemdb Monica’s PIIE profile: https://piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/monica-de-bolle Related Links: *Argentina: Back to the Brink* by Monica de Bolle https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/argentina-back-brink David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Mark Copelovitch is an associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and studies the politics of international trade, money, and finance. He joins the show today to discuss the politics of the global recession and the Eurozone Crisis. David and Mark dive deep into these topics, as they examine how policymakers failed during the Great Recession, and how effects of the Eurozone crisis varied across Europe. They also discuss whether the recent Italian elections can be viewed as a consequence of Eurozone failures. Mark’s Twitter: @mcopelov Mark’s University of Wisconsin-Madison profile: https://polisci.wisc.edu/people/faculty/mark-copelovitch Related Links: *This Time Should Have Been Different: The Causes and Consequences of Macroeconomic Policy Failure in the Great Recession* by Mark Copelovitch https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3059991 *The Monetary Policy Origins of the Eurozone Crisis* by David Beckworth https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/Beckworth-Euroz

Dan Griswold is a research fellow and co-director for the Program on the American Economy and Globalization at the Mercatus Center. He is a nationally recognized expert on trade and immigration and is a previous guest on Macro Musings. He joins the show today to discuss his recent policy brief, *The Benefits of Immigration: Addressing the Key Myths* in addition to some of his other work on the issue. Some of the topics Dan and David explore include immigration’s positive effects on economic growth, the importance of immigrants in maintaining demographic stability, and other false narratives surrounding their perceived fiscal impact. Dan’s Twitter: @DanielGriswold Dan’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/daniel-griswold Related Links: *The Benefits of Immigration: Addressing the Key Myths* by Dan Griswold https://www.mercatus.org/publications/benefits-of-immigration-key-myths *The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration* by the National Academies of Sciences https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23550/th

Larry Ball is a professor and department chair of economics at Johns Hopkins University. He is published widely in the field of macroeconomics and joins the show today to discuss his new book, *The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Setting the Record Straight on a Financial Disaster* and its implications for potential future crises. David and Larry also dive deep into the events leading up to the Lehman collapse, the effects it had on the broader economy, and the lessons that can be learned from the fallout ten years later. Larry’s Johns Hopkins profile: http://econ.jhu.edu/directory/laurence-m-ball/ Larry’s NBER archive: http://www.nber.org/people/laurence_ball Related Links: *The Fed and Lehman Brothers: Setting the Record Straight on a Financial Disaster* by Laurence Ball https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/fed-and-lehman-brothers/14BE6C2AD579DC4782EC27F2A6AF2FA6 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Nick Timiraos is a national economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and covers topics relating to the Federal Reserve. He also covered the housing bust and the government’s response to the mortgage crisis during the Great Recession as well as the government-sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Nick joins the show today to discuss the long and controversial history surrounding the two GSEs on the 10 year anniversary of their conservatorship. David and Nick also discuss the evolution of the U.S. housing market as well as the advent and characteristics of securitization. Nick’s Twitter: @NickTimiraos Nick’s Wall Street Journal profile: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/5585 Related Links: *The U.S. Mortgage Market: Chart Edition* by David Beckworth (includes the market share chart referenced at 25:20 during the episode.) http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2018/05/the-us-mortgage-market-chart-edition.html David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth