Macro Musings

Michael Strain is the Director of Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and a previous guest of the show. Michael joins Macro Musings for a special presidential election episode to discuss President Trump's economic record and what a Biden presidency might mean for the economy compared to a second term for President Trump. Specifically, David and Michael discuss the presidential candidates’ past records and campaign goals for trade, taxes, regulations, immigration, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Michael’s Twitter: @MichaelRStrain Michael’s AEI profile: https://www.aei.org/profile/michael-r-strain/   Related Links:   The Mercatus Center’s RegData databse:  https://www.mercatus.org/publications/regulation/regdata   *The triumph of the Trump tax cuts* by Joshua McCabe https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/522813-the-triumph-of-the-trump-tax-cuts   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarke

Matt Yglesias is the co-founder of Vox, a senior correspondent who focuses on politics and economic policy, and a returning guest to the podcast. Matt once again joins Macro Musings to discuss his new book, *One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger.* Specifically, David and Matt talk about how to reinvigorate the economy; through enacting better housing and transportation policies, dramatically increasing immigration, reviving America’s forgotten cities, and more. Finally, they also discuss the Fed’s new average inflation targeting regime, and what kind of direction the Fed will take over the new few years.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Matt’s Twitter: @mattyglesias Matt’s Vox profile: https://www.vox.com/authors/matthew-yglesias Matt’s podcast: https://www.vox.com/the-weeds   Related Links:   *One Billion Americans: The Case For Thinking Bigger* by Matt Yglesias https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/636499/one-billion-ameri

Shruti Rajagopalan is a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center where she leads the programs Indian Political Economy Research and the Emergent Ventures India. Shruti joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the past, present and future of the Indian economy. Specifically, Shruti and David discuss India’s mid-20th century experiment with socialism, subsequent reforms from 1980 through the 2000s, and how further reforms to manufacturing and to land and labor markets can accelerate its economic development.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Shruti’s Twitter: @srajagopalan Shruti’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/shruti-rajagopalan Shruti’s podcast, *Ideas of India*: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/https://www.mercatus.org/tags/ideas-india   Related Links:   *India Grows at Night* by Gurcharan Das https://www.amazon.com/India-Grows-At-Night-Liberal/dp/0670084700   *In India, Don’t Hate the Ma

Roberto Perli is a partner and the head of global policy at Cornerstone Macro and is formerly a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Roberto joins Macro Musings to discuss the Fed’s new average inflation targeting framework and what it means for monetary policy, markets, and the economy going forward. Specifically, David and Roberto also discuss the current vague nature of FOMC forward guidance, the challenges and credibility concerns of AIT, and how to further improve the Fed’s framework in the future.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Roberto’s Twitter: @R_Perli Roberto’s Cornerstone Macro profile: https://www.cornerstonemacro.com/people/   Related Links:   FOMC September meeting press release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200916a.htm   *Temporary Price-level Targeting: An Alternative Framework for Monetary Policy* by Ben Bernanke https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2017/1

Megan Greene is a global economist and Senior Fellow at Harvard University School, and Eric Lonergan is an economist and macro fund manager at M&G Investments. Both Megan and Eric are returning guests of the show, and they re-join Macro Musings to discuss dual interest rates and the potential power it brings to central banks. Specifically, they discuss the current constraints on central banks’ toolkit, how the example of the ECB targeting TLTRO’s illustrates the potential of dual interest rates, why the concern over fiscal versus monetary policy is misunderstood, and whether the Fed’s new average inflation targeting mandate can be successfully implemented.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Megan’s Twitter: @economistmeg Megan’s website: https://economistmeg.com/about/ Megan’s Financial Times archive: https://www.ft.com/megan-greene   Eric’s Twitter: @ericlonners Eric’s blog: https://www.philosophyofmoney.net/ Eric’s M&G Investments pro

Thorvald Grung Moe is a 30 year veteran is of the Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, and has also worked in the Norwegian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, and the IMF. Thorvald joins Macro Musings to talk about Marriner Eccles and a paper he has written on him title, *Marriner Eccles in the 1950 Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bankers.* David and Thorvald specifically discuss Eccles’ views on countercyclical monetary policy and government finance, his role in reforming and centralizing the Fed, and the many other lessons that can be learned from his life, particularly in the realm of macroeconomics.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Thorvald’s Twitter: @finstab Thorvald’s Levy Economics Institute profile: http://www.levyinstitute.org/scholars/thorvald-grung-moe   Related Links:   *Marriner S. Eccles and the 1951 Treasury – Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bank Independence* by Thorvald Grung Moe http:/

Carolyn Sissoko is an associate professor of economics at the University of the West of England, and she has written widely on shadow banking, money markets, and the plumbing of the financial system. Carolyn joins Macro Musings to talk about the evolution of money markets over the past few decades, and its implication for both monetary and fiscal policy. Specifically, David and Carolyn discuss the collateral supply effect, the consequences of moving from LIBOR to SOFR, and solutions to other money market concerns.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Carolyn’s Twitter: @csissoko Carolyn’s UWE Bristol profile: https://people.uwe.ac.uk/Person/CarolynSissoko   Related Links:   *The Collateral Supply Effect on Central Bank Policy* by Carolyn Sissoko https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3545546   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Robin Harding is the Tokyo Bureau chief for the Financial Times. Until 2015, he was based in Washington D.C., covering the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the IMF for the Financial Times. Robin Macro Musings to talk about the Japanese economy, Abenomics, and the evolution of monetary policy in advanced economies over the past decade. Specifically, Robin and David discuss what the Bank of Japan’s point inflation target has in common with the Fed’s average inflation target, how the Bank of Japan found itself on the frontlines of innovation in monetary policy, and what the legacy of Abenomics portends for the future of monetary policy.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Robin’s Twitter: @RobinBHarding Robin’s Financial Times profile: https://www.ft.com/robin-harding   Related Links:   *Six Abenomics Lessons for a World Struggling with ‘Japanification’* by Robin Harding https://www.ft.com/content/9f4b1656-95a2-41e0-9c86-70f5b063796d   *Abe

George Selgin is the director of the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins again to talk about his views on the Fed’s new framework and his recent book titled, *The Menace of Fiscal QE.* Specifically, David and George discuss the Fed’s quantitative easing evolution, and how the move to a floor system helped pave the way for fiscal QE to become a more popular policy in the present.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   George’s Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin George’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin   Related Links:   *The Menace of Fiscal QE* by George Selgin https://www.cato.org/books/menace-fiscal-qe   *Mission Creep at the Fed* by Greg Ip https://www.wsj.com/articles/mission-creep-at-the-fed-11598461446   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Macro Musings is back with another bonus episode, as Sam Bell and Skanda Amarnath (Employ America) are joined by Julia Coronado (Macro Policy Perspectives) and David Beckworth (Macro Musings) to talk through the announcement of the Fed’s framework transition towards average inflation targeting. Specifically, this panel of guests discuss the implications of moving to an average inflation targeting regime, whether the shift may cause credibility problems for the central bank, how to continue to improve the Fed’s toolkit, and more.   Special thanks to the Employ America team for allowing us to use their webcast audio for this special Macro Musings bonus content.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Employ America’s Twitter: @employamerica Employ America’s website: https://employamerica.org/ Sam Bell’s Twitter: @sam_a_bell Skanda Amarnath’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher   Julia’s Twitter: @jc_econ Julia’s Macro Policy Perspectives profile: https://www.macr

Scott Lincicome is a senior fellow in Economic Studies at Cato Institute where he writes on international and domestic economic issues, including international trade, industrial policy and manufacturing and global supply chains. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to discuss what we've learned so far about the so-called China shock and where we are today in the trade war. Specifically, David and Scott discuss the historical rise of Chinese exports, its impact on US labor markets, how certain policies make it harder for US workers to adjust, and whether the Trump administration marks a genuine regime shift in international trade.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Scott’s Twitter: @scottlincicome Scott’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/scott-lincicome   Related Links:   *Testing the ‘China Shock’: Was Normalizing Trade with China a Mistake?”*by Scott Lincicome https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/testing-china-sh

Jim Tankersley is a tax and economics reporter for the New York Times and has written a new book on the middle class titled, *The Riches of This Land: The Untold, True Story of the American Middle Class.* Jim joins Macro Musings to talk about this book, and the state of the middle class in the US. David and Jim also discuss the history and golden era of the middle class as well as the steps policymakers can take to ensure we return to a path of robust economic growth.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Jim’s Twitter: @jimtankersley Jim’s New York Times archive: https://www.nytimes.com/by/jim-tankersley   Related Links:   *The Riches of This Land: The Untold, True Story of the American Middle Class* by Jim Tankersley https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/jim-tankersley/the-riches-of-this-land/9781541767836/   *The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth* by Chang-Tai Hsieh, Erik Hurst, Charles Jones, and Peter Klenow https://www.nb

Vincent Grossmann-Wirth is the Deputy Head of Monetary Policy Implementation Division at the Banque de France. Vincent joins Macro Musings to discuss the European Central Bank’s response to the COVID-19 crisis and what may lie ahead for the central bank. Specifically, Vincent and David discuss how the ECB’s structure and operating system compares to the US Federal Reserve System, the various dimensions of the ECB’s response to COVID-19, and what the ECB’s review of its operating framework portends for the future of monetary policy.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Vincent’s Twitter: @VinceGW Vincent’s Banque de France profile: https://www.banque-france.fr/en/economics/economists-and-researchers/vincent-grossmann-wirth   Related Links:   *Monetary policy measures taken by the Eurosystem in response to COVID-19* by Vincent Grossmann-Wirth https://blocnotesdeleco.banque-france.fr/en/blog-entry/monetary-policy-measures-taken-eurosystem-respons

David Schleicher is a professor at Yale Law School, and as a returning guest to Macro Musings, he joins to talk about the historical role that the federal government has played in responding to state and local budget crises, including the municipal trllemma it faces. This trilemma says the federal government can only avoid two of the three following harms: (1) moral hazard for state budgets; (2) worsening recessions; (3) reducing future state and local infrastructure investment. Specifically, they discuss this trilemma as well as its implications for the COVID-19 crisis.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   David’s Twitter: @ProfSchleich David’s Yale profile: https://law.yale.edu/david-n-schleicher   Related Links:   *Stuck! The Law and Economics of Residential Stagnation* by David Schleicher https://www.yalelawjournal.org/article/stuck-the-law-and-economics-of-residential-stagnation   *Hands On! Part I: The Trilemma Facing the Federal Governmen

Jon Sindreu is a reporter for the Wall Street Journal where he covers financial markets and the global transportation industry for the Heard on the Street column. Jon joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the role of global financial flows in driving global trade patterns. Specifically, Jon and David discuss the Bernanke view, loanable funds view, and money view of global financial system, as well as the implications for policy.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Jon’s Twitter: @jonsindreu Jon’s Wall Street Journal profile: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/jon-sindreu?mod=rsswn   Related Links:   *Trade Wars Are Class Wars* by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300244175/trade-wars-are-class-wars   *Wages of Destruction* by Adam Tooze https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/295490/the-wages-of-destruction-by-adam-tooze/   *Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real E

In this special Macro Musings episode, David is back in the spotlight, as he is interviewed by Claudia Sahm, director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, as a guest on her *Stay-at-Home Macro Podcast*. David and Claudia discuss nominal GDP targeting at length, as they dive into what it is, why it’s important, and how it could be implemented in the wake of COVID-19. They also talk about the communication problems related to introducing NGDP targeting as well as David’s proposal for reforming the Fed’s current policies.   Special thank you to Claudia for letting us air this episode as a part of the Macro Musings catalog!   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ David’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/david-beckworth   Claudia’s Twitter: @Claudia_Sahm Claudia’s Equitable Growth profile: https://equitablegrowth

Bill Nelson is a Chief Economist and Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute, and formerly a Deputy Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window analysis, and financial institution supervision. Bill also worked closely with the Bank for International Settlements on liquidity regulations. Bill is a previous guest of Macro Musings, and he returns to the podcast to discuss the Fed’s increasing role in credit policy, the prospects for yield curve control and negative interest rates, and why makeup policy would be uniquely suited to the challenges presently facing the economy.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Bill’s SIFMA profile: https://www.sifma.org/people/bill-nelson/ Bill’s BPI archive: https://bpi.com/tag/bill-nelson/ Bill’s American Banker archive: https://www.americanbanker.com/author/william-nelson-ab3618   Related

Jens Van’t Klooster is a postdoctoral fellow at KU Leuven and is also a member of the research group, A New Normative Framework for Financial Debt at the University of Amsterdam. Jens has recently coauthored an article titled *The Myth of Market Neutrality: A Comparative Study of the European Central Bank’s and Swiss National Bank’s Corporate Security Purchases.* He joins Macro Musings to talk about this article and some of his other work on central bank purchases and what it may mean for the Fed’s purchase of corporate bonds.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Jens’s Twitter: @jvklooster Jens’s website: https://jensvantklooster.com/   Related Links:   *The Myth of Market Neutrality: A Comparative Study of the European Central Bank’s and Swiss National Bank’s Corporate Security Purchases* by Jens Van’t Klooster and Clement Fontan https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563467.2019.1657077   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

Matthew Klein is an economics commentator at Barron’s and is the author of a new book with Michael Pettis titled, *Trade Wars are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace.* Matthew is a returning guest to Macro Musings and he joins once again to talk about his book and the domestic roots of international trade conflicts – in the past as well as today. Specifically, David and Matthew also discuss the history of how industrialized strategies, in countries such as China, have set the stage for trade conflicts in the present day.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Matthew’s Twitter: @M_C_Klein Matthew’s Barron’s profile: https://www.barrons.com/authors/8566   Related Links:   *Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace* by Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300244175/trade-wars-are-class-wars   *The Great Rebal

Stephen Kirchner is a program director for trade and investment at the United States Center at the University of Sydney, and he was written widely on financial markets and economy policy in Australia. Stephen joins Macro Musings to talk about the journey of monetary policy in Australia that has transpired throughout the last few decades. Specifically, David and Stephen discuss the structure of the Reserve Bank of the Australia, the history of its inflation target, how Australia was able to avoid the worst of the Great Recession, and the actions they have taken to in response to the COVID crisis.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Stephen’s Twitter: @insteconomics Stephen’s US Studies Center profile: https://www.ussc.edu.au/people/stephen-kirchner Stephen’s Substack page: https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/   Related Links:   *Money Too Tight to Mention: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Mandate and Low Inflation* by Steph