Rational Security

This week, Quinta and Scott co-hosted sans Alan, but were joined by the co-hosts of the Carnegie Council's The Doorstep Podcast, Nikolas Gvosdev and Tatiania Serafin! They talked through the week's big national security news, including:“Paper Rocks Censors.” China has erupted in protests against Xi Jinping’s draconian zero-COVID policies, with thousands of Chinese citizens holding up a blank white sheet of paper as a sign of their discontent. Will these “white paper” protests make a difference in China? How should the United States respond?“A Cheney Might Shoot You in the Face, But They’d Never Stab You in the Back.” Last week, the Washington Post reported that more than a dozen current and past staffers on the Jan. 6 committee are angry with co-chair Liz Cheney for decisions to focus the committee’s final report on conduct related to former President Trump. Is there merit to these complaints or do they seem overblown?“Much Guaido About Nothing?” The Biden administration is easing sanctions on Venezuela, as t

This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott welcomed Lawfare's dynamic associate editor duo, Katherine Pompilio and Hyemin Han, on to the show to talk through the week's big national security news stories, including:“Going Full Cleve.” Last week, former President Donald Trump announced his intention to once again run for president—in spite of the Republicans’ weak showing in the midterm elections and his own impending legal troubles. What does Trump’s announcement mean for 2024 and after? “A Mueller Mulligan?” Trump’s announcement that he was once again running for president in turn led Attorney General Merrick Garland to make his own announcement last Friday: that he was appointing another Special Counsel to take over the investigations into Trump’s interference in the 2020 election results and mishandling of classified records. Was this the right move? How will the Special Counsel’s appointment impact the investigations—and Trump’s political future?“Pyongyanking Our Chain.” North Korea has l

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott talked through a big week of national security news, including:“Red Dead Redemption.” Expectations of a “red wave” in the 2022 midterm elections came up short this week, as Democrats retained control of the Senate and expanded their control in the states while Republicans only appear to gain control of the House by the slimmest of margins. How will these election results impact the security of our democracy moving forward?  “Negotiating a Peace Entreaty.” Even as Russian forces beat a retreat from Kherson, some officials within the Biden administration—most notably, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley—are reportedly becoming more inclined to push for a negotiated peace with Russia, particularly as the winter months slow down the pace of fighting. Russia, meanwhile, responded to a speech by Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelensky outlining a 10 step plan for peace with a new barrage of missile attacks. What are the pros and cons of such negotiations? And

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Brookings Institution Middle East expert Natan Sachs to talk over the week's big (non-U.S. election) national security news, including:“Bibi Got Back.” Last week, an unprecedented fifth national election in the last four years returned controversial former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to power, at the head of a coalition including several far-right nationalist parties. What does his return to office mean for the future of Israel and the region? And its relations with the United States?“COP Out.” The United Nations’ 27th annual Convention of Parties (also known as “COP27”) is playing host to world leaders in Sharm-al-Sheikh, Egypt, this week, where some are hoping to find new consensus on how to combat climate change. Are countries taking these challenges seriously? What are these efforts likely to look like moving forward?“Everybody Toots.” Elon Musk’s purchase and dramatic reorientation of Twitter is begging to dri

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott shook off their post-Halloween sugar comas to hash through some of the week's big national security news stories, including:“A Home Invasion in the House.” A man connected to various online conspiracies broke into the San Francisco home of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and violently assaulted her husband, all as part of a plot to kidnap and torture her. What is to blame for this type of violence? Are we taking it seriously enough?“First (R)use?” The Biden administration’s recently released Nuclear Posture Review has taken many progressives by surprise, as it appears to walk back candidate Biden’s commitment to a policy against first use. Is this criticism fair? What should we make of the Biden administration’s nuclear strategy?“Trust and the Fourth Estate.” The Justice Department has codified new guidelines putting significant restrictions on when and how prosecutors can subpoena and arrest journalists. Are these restrictions well-founded or do they go too far? For

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by China expert and law professor Julian Ku to talk through some of the week's big national security news, including:“Xi Loves Me, Xi Loves Me Not.” At the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress this past weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping was able to not only secure his leadership over the party and country for a third consecutive five-year term but successfully staff the party apparatus with his hand-picked loyalists. What does the Congress tell us about where China is headed under Xi’s rule?“Huawei or the Highway.” Less than 24 hours after the close of the CCP Congress in Beijing, Attorney General Merrick Garland and his most senior deputies unveiled a series of indictments against Chinese nationals alleged to have engaged in covert campaigns to interfere with the investigation into Huawei, penetrate U.S. research institutions, and curb protests by Chinese nationals in the United States. Is the timing a message or just a coincidence? How should th

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott flew solo to talk through some of the week's big national security news stories, including:“Jake, Mr. Sullivan if You’re NSSty.” The Biden administration finally unveiled its long awaited (and overdue) National Security Strategy last week, through a high-profile event at Georgetown University featuring National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Does it hit the mark? Does it even matter? “Big Subpoena Energy.” The Jan. 6 committee confidently closed its last live session with a bang last week, in the form of a unanimous vote to subpoena former President Trump for his testimony. Trump responded with a 14-page rant a few days later that repeated many of his grievances over the 2020 election but did not address whether he would comply. Why did the committee take this step? Is there any way to compel Trump to cooperate? Will it need to?“Is it SIGINT or SIJINT?” The Biden administration has issued a new Executive Order limiting its collection of signals intelligence, as part of

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by beloved Lawfare contributor and UVA Law professor Ashley Deeks, fresh from her latest stint at the White House. They hashed through some of the week's big national security news, including:“The Bridge and Pummel Crowd.” Ukraine’s destruction of a symbolic bridge linking Russia to Crimea has observers worried about a new round of escalation, as Russia responded with missile strikes on a range of civilian targets across the country, including a German consulate in Kyiv, with promises of more to come. Are we entering a new, brutal phase of the conflict? What can be done to stop its civilian toll—or to keep the escalatory spiral from spinning out of control?“Finally, Some Decency and Moderation on the Supreme Court.” Last week, the Supreme Court took up not one but two—albeit, two closely related—cases that center on how to apply Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, a law that provides internet companies with immunity for liability arising from user-gene

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down with unofficial fourth co-host, Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett, to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:“That’s one, one disqualified elector. (Ah ah ah.)” Both the House and Senate finally seem ready to reform the Electoral Count Act, the ambiguity-ridden statute that has (kind of) governed how Congress counts electoral votes since 1887. What threats to our elections process will these reforms fix? Which will they leave unaddressed?“It’s No Longer A-Me, Mario.” Recent elections are set to replace Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi with none other than Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy movement. What does her victory mean for democracy in Italy and across Europe?“Narcnado.” The Treasury Department’s decision to sanction Tornado Cash, an open source cryptocurrency tumbler, has privacy and technology advocates crying foul. Will the sanctions survive a coming legal challenge? Does it put First Amendment rights a

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien to hash through the week's big national security news, including:“Bad Vlad’s Sad Grab Has Leningrad a Tad Mad.” Russian President Vladimir Putin seems intent on escalating the conflict in Ukraine, as he’s mobilized thousands of civilian conscripts and is on the verge of incorporating separatist parts of the country into Russia following a sham referendum. But will the Russian people stand for these new actions? And what will they mean for the future of the conflict?“What’s Farsi for Riotgrrrl?” Young Iranians have taken to the streets for women’s rights following the apparent killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was arrested by religious police for failing to adequately cover her hair. Could this be a real threat to the Iranian regime? And what will it mean for hard-line President Raisi and the ailing Ayatollah Khameini?“Cannon as Anticanon.” Everyone’s favorite federal district court judge Aileen Cannon has h

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott went guestless to discuss the week’s big national security news, including:“Ne Me Quitte Pas.” The nearby island nation of Haiti is hitting new levels of instability, as paired economic and political crises have given way to open gang warfare in broad swathes of the country. While the events have some calling for external intervention, others have expressed major reservations with such a step, given its past failings in the country. Where might this crisis lead?“I’m Rubber, You’re Su(ing).” Last week, the Fifth Circuit released a real barn-burner of an opinion in the matter of NetChoice v. Paxton, wherein it adopted a narrow reading of the First Amendment in order to resurrect a Texas law severely limiting how social media platforms can moderate content. What will this case mean for platforms moving forward?“Flying Worst Class.” Florida Governor Ron Desantis became the latest Republican governor this week to fly undocumented migrants to northern cities in purported protest o

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down with Lawfare deputy foreign policy editor and RatSec rookie Dana Stuster, to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Chechens Coming Home to Roost.” Ukraine’s surprise counteroffensive in Kharkiv has proven to be a massive success, leading Russian troops to surrender seized territory as they beat a retreat. At the same time, supporters of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—including Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov—are becoming more openly critical of how the Russian government is managing the campaign. What will these setbacks mean for the future of the conflict—and the Putin regime itself? “Did You Know You Can Eat Them With the Skins On?” Last week, Cloudflare announced that, due to “an unprecedented emergency and immediate threat to human life,” it would cease providing security services to Kiwi Farms, an internet forum infamous for coordinating harassment and doxxing campaigns. Should essential service providers like Cloudflare be put in the

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeriti Ben Wittes and Shane Harris for a very special anniversary edition of Rational Security that pits their national security hot takes up against each other.Which of the following takes will the team find to be "too hot," which "undercooked," and which "just right"?Americans (and especially progressives) will regret reviving the prospect of disqualifying people under section 3 of the 14th Amendment.Over the next year, there will be a windfall of information regarding unidentified aerial phenomena, including some pointing to possible extraterrestrial origin.A President Ron Desantis won't be as dangerous as President Donald Trump.Russia's terminal decline presents one of the greatest threats to global security.American democracy will be saved by social conservative minorities voting for the Republican Party. For object lessons, Alan endorsed his favorite children's book about affectionate penguins (of many), "I Like it When" by Mary Murphy. Qui

On this anniversary-eve edition, Alan, Quinta, and Scott reunited to hash through this week’s big national security stories, including:“The Other Other Nuclear Option.” Hostilities in Ukraine are getting perilously close to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, with each side accusing the other of recklessly pursuing military in its vicinity. The IAEA is sending in a team to help secure the site. But what difference can the international community make? Does it need a different response?“Biting the Hand that Retweets You.” A new report indicates that Meta and Twitter have taken down a network of accounts associated with a pro-Western information operation critical of China, Russia, and Iran. Should the United States and its allies be engaging in these sorts of activities? How should social media platforms be treating them?“Fixing the CivCas Mismatch.” The Defense Department has rolled out a long awaited new policy aimed at finally accomplishing that many have long agreed on in principle, but have disagreed on how t

This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott were joined by host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's big national security stories, including:“Sometimes the Best Defense is a New Offensive.” With apparent U.S. support, Ukraine is bringing the fight to Crimea and other Russian-held areas—and perhaps to the streets of Moscow itself, where a well-known Russian nationalist’s car and daughter were detonated this past week. What are the risks of this new strategy? And how far will (or should) the United States go in its support?“The Enemy of my Frenemy is my…Enemenemy?” Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement appeared to hold significant (if not absolute) sway in several recent Republican primaries, where a number of election-denying candidates won—several with help from the DCCC, who supported them against more moderate opponents in hopes of having weaker competition in the general election. How might this strategy impact democratic norms and the rule of law?“Special Masters and the Don/Sub(tweet) R

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their fellow Lawfare senior editor Molly Reynolds to talk through a week of big national security news stories, including:“Regrets? I’ve had a few.” One year has passed since the chaotic U.S. exit from Afghanistan, which triggered the collapse of the U.S.-backed government and the return to power of the Taliban. What have we learned from this experience? And how should it inform U.S. engagement with Afghanistan moving forward? “Half-Truths and Reconciliation.” Democrats in Congress have scored a huge climate win in the form of the somewhat strangely named Inflation Reduction Act, which passed both chambers by the slimmest of margins through a special procedure known as reconciliation that bypasses the supermajority requirement that the Senate usually operates under thanks to the filibuster. How big a deal is this? And is it a model that other policy proposals can follow? “Déclassé.” While the Justice Department weighs whether to release more document

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by special guest Ravi Agrawal, editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, to hash through the week's big national security news, including:“Canned Strategy.” The war in Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan have led the Biden administration to further revise its long overdue National Security Strategy, which it now intends to release in the fall. What do we already know about Biden’s grand strategy? And how should we evaluate it?“Mar-a-Leggo My Federal Records.” Yesterday, the FBI executed a search of former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, reportedly in search of classified documents that Trump had retained in violation of federal records laws. How serious a step is this and what does it mean for the broader universe of investigations surrounding Trump and his associates? “Milley Not So Vanilli.” A shocking new report details former President Trump’s contentious relationship with his generals—including a particularly contentious relationship with his C

This week, Alan, Quinta, Scott, and favorite guest Lawfare executive editor Natalie Orpett got together to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“Another One Bites the Dust.” This past weekend, an American drone strike successfully killed yet another major terrorist leader—this time al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri—in downtown Kabul, while apparently avoiding any civilian casualties or significant collateral damage. What does the strike tell us about the Biden administration's counterterrorism strategy and the role it plays in his broader global agenda?“Maybe He Just Mixed Up His St. Petersburgs.” In Florida, the Justice Department has indicted Russian agent Aleksandr Viktorovich Ionov for engaging in an array of political activities on behalf of fringe political candidates and organizations, with the alleged goal of promoting political instability at the Russian government's behest. What light does this indictment shed on Russian interference in American politics?“The Bully Cockpit.”

This week, most of Alan, Quinta, Scott, and co-host emeritus Ben Wittes got together to discuss the week's big national security news, including: “It’s Over, but Don’t Leave Before the Mid-Credits Sequence.” The Jan. 6 committee held its final primetime hearing this past Thursday, focused on Trump’s inaction in ending the riot on Jan. 6. But it’s suggested more may be coming. What has the committee accomplished and what is yet to come?“Oh, HIMARS.” The war in Ukraine has become a slow and difficult grind, as Russian forces backed by heavy artillery have made slow but steady progress towards their revised goal of controlling the breakaway Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. But Ukraine recently received what it claims is a game changer—the HIMARS rocket system—and wants the United States to give it more. What does this tell us about the dynamics around its import for Ukraine, the risks of escalation, and where the conflict may be headed in this new phase?“Orange is the New Three Stupid Shirt Co

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together for another early morning session to hash through the week's big national security news, including: “Stuck in the Middle (East) with You.” As President Biden ends his trip to the Middle East having re-engaged the Gulf countries and recommitted to preventing Iran from securing a nuclear weapon—including by force, if necessary—Russian President Vladimir Putin is kicking off his own visit to deepen ties with Tehran and negotiate with Turkey. What does this mean for regional security, the lagging Iran nuclear talks, and the U.S. pivot to Asia?“Qualified Incredulity.” The Justice Department has finally weighed in on former Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’s arguments that executive privilege prevents the Jan. 6 committee from compelling his testimony. And while it didn’t back his position, it was more friendly to his general position than one might expect. What should we make of its approach?“Georgia on My ASS.” Prosecutors from the Peach State are proving