Rational Security

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott reunited to talk through the week’s big national security news, including:“Pack Your Knives and Go Home.” Vladimir Putin’s top chef has been eliminated. Wagner mercenary chief and Kremlin caterer Yevgeny Prighozin was killed in a plane crash this past week alongside a number of associates, in what the government has conceded might have been a deliberate act. If this was Putin’s revenge, what led him to take this step now? And what will it mean for his Wagner mercenary group—and the stability of Putin’s regime?“The Down Mexico Way.” At the first Republican presidential primary debate last week, there was surprising unity around one point: using the military to go after drug cartels in Mexico, whether it cooperates or not. What should we make of the villainization of America’s southern neighbor? And how realistic are these sorts of proposals?“(Re)Movin’ On Up.” Mark Meadows spent this past Monday trying to move his prosecution for crimes relating to 2020 election interference

This week, Quinta and Scott were joined by Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to break down the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Home to Roost.” A judge in the military commission trying Abdul Raheem al-Nashiri, a suspect in the 2000 USS Cole bombing, has ruled that his confession is inadmissible on the grounds that it was tainted by his prior torture and interrogation at the hands of U.S. officials, even though the confession itself was extracted from a non-coercive “clean team.” What does this mean for the future of the Nashiri trial? And of the military commissions as a whole? “Disqualification, Qualified.” A pair of leading conservative constitutional scholars has reignited the discussion surrounding Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, arguing that it is self-executing and excludes former President Trump from the presidency. How persuasive are their arguments? And what impact will they actually have on the 2024 election?“A Distinctive Musk.” The New Yorker has run a profile of

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Fulton County correspondent Anna Bower to talk through the week’s big news down south, including: “Waiting on a Midnight Complaint in Georgia.” Late on Monday night, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis finally indicted Donald Trump alongside eighteen co-conspirators for attempting to interfere with the state of Georgia’s 2020 election results. What does this fourth criminal indictment mean for the universe of legal cases against the former president?“Hunter Becomes the Hunted.” Earlier this week, Attorney General Merrick Garland took the unexpected step of appointing Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss as a special counsel to investigate Hunter Biden. What led to this move? And what does it mean for the investigation into the president’s son?“Why So CFIUS?” President Biden has finally issued a long-expected executive order installing some controls on outbound U.S. investments, particularly in relation to China and certain sensitive technology secto

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott beat back the heat to dig into the week's big national security news stories, including:“ECOWAShed?” We are now several weeks into a coup in Niger, a country once seen as one of the more reliable Western partners in the Sahel region and home to French and U.S. troops who have been helping the Nigerien military combat a local Islamist insurgency. Even as the Nigeria-led Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, has threatened sanctions and intervention to unwind the coup, neighboring states like Burkina Faso and Mali with close ties to Russia and its Wagner Group have threatened a military response in kind. What might this coup mean for the future of the Sahel? And how should the United States be responding?“A Tale of Two Sittings.” Former President Donald Trump is now the subject of two different criminal indictments, each of which is being overseen by a very different judge in very different ways. What should we make of their divergent approaches thus far? And w

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus Benjamin Wittes to talk through the week's YUGE national security news, including:“So THAT’s What the Insurrection Act is For.” Former President Trump has been indicted for conspiring to overthrow the results of the 2020 election, including through the insurrection on Jan. 6. And while they haven’t been charged, the indictment names six co-conspirators who were allegedly willing to go to the mat—including former Justice Department official Jeffrey Clark, who, in one of the darkest moments in the indictment, suggested that the Insurrection Act would be used to deploy the military against anyone who protests the Trump administration’s actions. What does this indictment mean, historically and politically? And where will the trial go from here?“The Spy Who Nagged Me.” The intelligence community is knocking on Congress’s door, hat in hand, asking once again for the renewal for the controversial-but-essential section 702 surveillance authority. But

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by the long absent Lawfare Executive Editor Natalie Orpett to talk through the week’s big national security news stories, including:“Next Fear in Jerusalem.” This week, Israel’s Knesset voted to abolish the “reasonableness doctrine” that had allowed its courts to review administrative decisions by the executive branch—a revolutionary move that triggered unprecedented protest around the country and a wave of resignations throughout the armed forces and other corners of the country. What is the significance of this change? And what does it mean for the future of Israeli democracy?“Rio Grandstanding.” The Biden administration sued the state of Texas this week for installing barriers across the Rio Grande river, purportedly to stymie the flow of unlawful immigration. Texas, meanwhile, maintains that it has the right to take these measures as part of its sovereign authority as a state. Who has the better of these arguments, and what does it tell us about the stat

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott got together to NOT talk about that ONE big story that's not quite ripe yet. (You know the one. It involves sandwiches.) But they did chat through some of the week's other big national security news, including:“Against the Grain.” Russia backed out of the Turkey-facilitated Black Sea Grain Initiative this past week, which had allowed much needed Ukrainian grain to arrive in markets, largely in the developing world. Now not only is that avenue cut off, but Russian forces are attacking grain facilities in Odessa, threatening the global food supply. How does this brutal act fit into Russia’s global strategy? And how should the United States and its allies respond?“It’s a War on War.” The culture war is now taking on actual war, as House Republicans have passed a National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) laden with provisions that target Defense Department policies relating to abortion, DEI, and LGBTQ+ issues — measures that are certain not to make it through the Democrat-contro

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Ravi Agrawal, Editor in Chief of Foreign Policy Magazine, to talk through the week’s big natsec news, including: “Pledge Week.” In a sign of strength, NATO held its annual summit in the capital of Vilnius this week, just kilometers from Lithuania’s border with Belarus. But those hoping to join the club have gotten mixed receptions, with NATO members securing a clear path for Sweden to join the alliance without presenting a clear way forward for embattled Ukraine. What did we learn about the state of the alliance from this week’s historic meeting?“Cluster Ruck(us).” Late last week, the Biden administration made the controversial decision to provide U.S. cluster munitions—a type of weapon that many U.S. allies have banned by treaty, due to concerns about civilian casualties—to its ally Ukraine. Is it the right move? And what might it mean on the battlefield—and after the war is over?“Needling and Threads.” Mark Zuckerberg appears to have finally gotten unde

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down to talk over the week's post-Independence Day national security news, including:“Oy Revolt.” Israel launched a major military operation aimed at uprooting terrorist bases in the refugee camp outside the city of Jenin in the West Bank this week. But as is so often the case, the operation not only proved deadly for Palestinian civilians but has become a point of controversy in the international community. What does this operation say about Israel’s security strategy? “Nationwide Disjunction.” On July 4, a federal judge in Louisiana issued a nationwide injunction ordering the Biden administration not to engage with social media platforms over First Amendment protected speech, arising out of complaints about its handling of COVID-19 information (or misinformation). What is the basis for this order, how realistic is it, how sustainable is it, and what does it tell us about the weird legal dynamics surrounding this set of issues at the moment?“A la Modi.” Indian

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their colleague and think-tank neighbor, Russia/Ukraine expert Eric Ciaramella, to talk over the week's big news, including:“Going All (Prigozh)in.” Yevgeny Prighozin, leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, went all in this past week, marching his troops into Russia and halfway to Moscow for the stated purpose of removing Russia’s military leadership, only to abruptly halt and accept exile in Belarus instead. What does this mean for the conflict in Ukraine—and future of the Putin regime?“Lost at Sea.” In a busy week of news, one story has gotten surprisingly little attention: the tragic sinking of an overcrowded smugglers’ boat off the coast of Greece that claimed the lives of hundreds of migrants. What does this incident tell us about the dynamics of the migrant crisis in the Mediterranean—and how the world views it?“Moore, Moore, Moore! (How do YOU like it?)” The Supreme Court issued decisions in three major cases this past week, including addressing the

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by UVA Law Professor Paul Stephan to talk through the close-calls in this week's national security news, including:“Xi’s All That.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Beijing this past week, for a long delayed sit-down with President Xi Jinping to try and de-escalate the two superpowers’ tense relationship. Was this meeting a smart move or a giveaway? And what should we make of President Biden calling the Chinese leader a “dictator” shortly after Blinken’s return?“Adverse REPOssession.” The question of what to do with the $300 billion in Russia-related assets frozen by the United States and its allies has reemerged, with members of Congress recently introducing a new version of the REPO Act that would seize those assets and make them available as reparations for Ukraine, among other purposes. Is seizure the right way to handle these assets? What challenges and risks might such a dramatic step encounter?“Robo Joe.” President Biden joined a summit of leaders

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by Lawfare Legal Fellow Anna Bower fresh from the Miami court system to discuss the week's yuge national security news story—and one more for good measure:“Aileen, Aileen, Aileen, Aileen! Please don’t take this case just ‘cuz you can.” Former President Donald J. Trump was arraigned in federal court on Tuesday, the first step in a criminal trial expected to be overseen by none other than our old friend Judge Aileen Cannon. Will the charges for unlawful retention or obstruction of justice stick? And where is the trial likely to go from here?“It’s Arraignin’ Men.” The indictment of Trump in the Mar-a-Lago investigation is the first of its kind. But will it be the last? What else is the special counsel investigating? And are there other charges he might pursue, against Trump or others?“Xi Guevara.” Washington is up in arms over a spy station China is setting up in Cuba—or might have been operating for years. How big a deal is this? Are the reactions high-minded or hy

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott braved the haze to talk through the week’s (very) big national security news stories, including:“Downstream Effects.” The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine promises a new wave of suffering and environmental devastation for Ukrainians living along the Dnipro River. Who is responsible? And what could the ramifications be?“He’s Off to Meet the Wizard, The Wonderful Wizard of Laws.” Over the past few weeks, there has been a steady drip of information about Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into former President Trump, leading many to conclude that an indictment is on the horizon. What do we know about the state of the investigation? And where does it seem headed?“Party Animals.” The number of contenders in the 2024 Republican presidential primary has officially doubled, with new candidates like Chris Christie and Mike Pence presenting—or being unable to avoid—the legacy of Jan. 6, among other issues with the direction of the party under former President Trump.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by their Brookings and Lawfare colleague Molly Reynolds to talk all things Congress in the week’s national security news, including:Shattering the Must-Pass Ceiling.” Earlier this week, President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced a deal on raising the debt ceiling, and thereby avoiding a potential financial catastrophe. The question now is whether they can sell it to enough members of Congress, where right-wing members of McCarthy’s caucus are promising to sink it. Will the deal make it through? And if not, what might come next?“Recep Tayyip Erdo-won.” After a close fought contest, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has emerged victorious from run-offs in Türkiye’s national elections, positioning him for a third term in office and a third decade in power. Does the reelection of the increasingly autocratic figure mean the further decline of Turkish democracy? And Türkiye’s flagging relationship with the West?“I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid That’s Not

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were reunited to celebrate Alan's gradual physical and mental decline, and to talk over the week in national security news, including:“Fear of Flying.” President Biden finally greenlit the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine, despite Russia’s warnings—just as the siege at Bakhmut signals a brutal new phase of the conflict. Is this the right move? Or is the risk of escalation too great?“Big Sky, Closed Borders.” Social media company TikTok is challenging a new Montana law barring its use in the state on a variety of constitutional grounds, including the First Amendment and foreign affairs preemption. Are there legal barriers to state efforts to regulate platforms like TikTok? Or does Montana have the better arguments?“Putting the ‘Err’ in Durham.” Special Counsel John Durham has released the final report of his investigation into the original of the FBI investigation into possible links between the Trump campaign and Russia. And while the report has some celebrating, it’s left many

This week, Alan and Scott were joined by co-host emeritus (and Washington Post star reporter) Shane Harris to talk over the week's news! Including:“Flight of the Valkyries.” Recently leaked U.S. intelligence reports allege that Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prighozin—who has privately and publicly feuded with the Russian military leadership in recent weeks and even threatened to pull his mercenary troops from the conflict—has been in contact with Ukrainian intelligence and offered to share Russian troop positions in exchange for concessions around the disputed city of Bakhmut. Is Prighozin trying to find a path to retreat? What do his actions tell us about the conflict?“Jerkiye Boy.” Twitter owner Elon Musk has come under criticism for the company’s latest bad call: censoring certain content at the request of the Erdogan government in Türkiye, just prior to national elections there. How should Twitter have responded to the demands of Turkish officials? And how has Musk’s erratic leadership affected the company’

This week, Scott took a well-deserved vacation, so Alan and Quinta were joined by Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien to discuss:“But I thought 42 was the answer to life, the universe, and everything.” This week the Biden administration will cease Title 42, the policy linked to the Covid public health emergency under which asylum seekers could be turned back at the border. In its place, the administration is implementing a new rule that substantially limits asylum, limitations that, before the Trump administration implemented Title 42, would have been unthinkable. What should we make of the Biden administration’s embrace of immigration restrictions?“Every time a tragedy, increasingly also a farce.” Over the weekend, a gunman opened fire at an outlet mall in Allen, Texas, killing at least 8 people and injuring at least 7 before being killed by police. Tragically, this wasn’t even the deadliest mass shooting on record this year. How did mass shootings become America’s pastime, and what can be done to stop the

This week, a Quinta-less Alan and Scott were joined by Lawfare legal fellow Saraphin Dhanani to talk through the week's big national security news, including:“Seoul Authority.” South Korea and the United States recommitted themselves to their close security relationship this past week, including through a state dinner and a new Washington Declaration that confirms that the United States will respond to any nuclear attack on South Korea with overwhelming force. What drove this public showing? And what impact will it have on the nuclear threat posed by North Korea?“The Uncanny X-Date.” The debate over raising the debt ceiling took on new urgency this week, when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the United States might meet the ‘X-Date’ at which it defaults on its obligations as soon as June 1. Yet there are few signs of a compromise, as House Republicans have dug in on a proposal that demands deep spending cuts while the Biden administration continues to push for a clean raise. Where will

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott sat down—2/3 in a new studio space! (sorry, not sorry, Alan)—to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“A Sense of Doom in Khartoum.” An armed conflict between two rival military factions has broken out in Sudan. The United States and other major powers have evacuated their embassies, but numerous foreign nationals remain trapped on the ground, along with Sudanese civilians. How should the international community respond?“Tuck Around and Find Out.” Tucker Carlson is out at Fox News, having been summarily dismissed this past Friday with little fanfare. Whether this is a response to the Dominion settlement or something else remains a mystery. What does his departure mean for the media landscape?“He Was Just Biden’ His Time.” President Biden has finally confirmed what we all suspected: that he is running for re-election. How will national security fit into his candidacy, and the election to follow? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Alan, Quinta, and Scott were joined by law professor extraordinaire Jed Shugerman to talk over his controversial take on the New York district attorney's case against former President Trump, among other items in the week's national security news, including:“If You Come at the King, You Best Not Whiff.” Former President Trump’s indictment on 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree under New York state law earlier this month has triggered a firestorm of controversy, with several commentators accusing New York district attorney Alvin Bragg of advancing a weak or flawed case. What should we make of Bragg’s case based on what we know so far? And what more information should we be looking for?“Factual Malice.” Fox News has settled the defamation lawsuit being pursued against it by Dominion Voting Systems for a record $787.5 million—but without having to make an on-air acknowledgement of its false statements. Does this settlement deal do justice? Should Dominion have proceed