Wealthtrack

This week, in part 2 he will share his fifty years of economic perspective on the extraordinary events of 2020 and how the pandemic has changed the economy and markets. It will be a fascinating conversation with one of the best business cycle analysts of our era.      Every year at around this time we sit down for an in-depth interview with legendary economist Ed Hyman.  Hyman has been voted Wall Street’s number one economist in Institutional Investor magazine’s prestigious annual survey of institutional investors for an unprecedented forty years.     WEALTHTRACK #1726 originally broadcast on December 18, 2020 More Info: https://wealthtrack.com/covids-extraordinary-economic-impact-from-wall-streets-1-economist-ed-hyman/ Part 1: https://wealthtrack.com/ed-hyman-expects-record-monetary-stimulus-plus-vaccines-will-speed-up-economic-growth-in-2021/ Suggested Reading:  CREATORS: FROM CHAUCER TO WALT DISNEY, by Paul Johnson  https://amzn.to/3r9NvDU --- Support th

It's an annual tradition on WEALTHTRACK to sit down for a rare in-depth interview with Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s number one-ranked economist for an unrivaled forty years!  Hyman is a Wall Street legend. His ability to gather reams of economic data, including proprietary information from many sources including his weekly company surveys of industries ranging from retailers to restaurants, to homebuilders, truckers, and even Christmas tree vendors gives him an ability to take the current pulse of the many players in our huge and diverse economy.   This year we have even more to discuss than usual. We have extended our conversation into an exclusive two-part series. This week Hyman will share his outlook for the economy in 2021. He’ll explain why he expects a “blowout” in the second half but also why there are considerable challenges to get from here to there. Next week we’ll get his perspective on the extraordinary events of 2020 and what he learned from the experience.  This week we start with t

According to Medicare benefits expert, Dr. Katy Votava COVID-19 has altered several aspects of Medicare coverage and procedures. She will tell us what’s different and how to take advantage of the changes. She will also help us meet the deadline for Medicare’s annual enrollment period which ends on December 7th and allows medicare beneficiaries to evaluate their Medicare Advantage Plans and part D, prescription drug plans, and shift to different providers if it makes sense.  Votava is a Medicare expert who advises individuals, small businesses, and financial planners from her healthcare consulting business, GOODCARE.com. She is also the author of Making The Most Of Medicare: A Guide For Baby Boomers, now in its 7th edition and an Amazon bestseller. It is a straightforward, easy to navigate guide to Medicare which is a very complex multi-part system that frequently does warrant annual updating by its beneficiaries. An estimated 90 percent of Americans pay too much for their Medicare coverage.  WEALTHT

Can investing be simple? Can we stop worrying about what’s happening on Wall Street, in Washington, with Fed policy, inflation, corporate earnings, and numerous other headline-making concerns? Can we just get on with our lives and still invest successfully?  According to this week’s guest, the answer is yes, and we shouldn’t even care what the market is doing.   What should we care about? How should we invest? That is the focus of this week’s exclusive WEALTHTRACK interview.   Our guest is Charles Ellis, the author of the investment classic WINNING THE LOSER’S GAME, available now in its 2017 7th edition. Ellis is the author of 16 other books including the recently published 10th-anniversary edition of THE ELEMENTS OF INVESTING, co-written with his good friend, Princeton economics professor Burton Malkiel.    Ellis is a globally recognized financial thought leader, investment consultant, and advisor to governments, institutions, and endowments. He also cares deeply about helping invest

It’s been a roller coaster of emotions for investors this week.  Our focus is China. China of course is where COVID-19 originated in late 2019. It felt the impact first. It shut down vast swathes of its economy in response and it is now coming out of it, first.  All indications are that the world’s second-largest economy, by some measures occasionally the largest, is making a comeback. It looks like an impressive one.   The International Monetary Fund is predicting China’s economy will expand 1.9% this year, and estimates it will be the only major world economy to show any growth. This week’s guest says that China’s economy is well on its way back to normal and that there are multiple opportunities for investors in the world’s second-largest stock market.   Robert Horrocks, Ph.D. and Chief Investment Officer of Matthews Asia on how back to normal is China? We will find out.   WEALTHTRACK #1720 broadcast on November 13, 2020 More info: https://wealthtrack.com/chinas-economic-comeb

What a week! The widely predicted blue wave of Democrats sweeping into the White House, taking over the Senate majority, and increasing their dominance in Congress has failed to materialize.  As far as the stock market is concerned, a divided government is a plus because not a lot will change in the way of tax policy and regulations.  Investor optimism is not shared by Federal Reserve officials who expressed ongoing concern about the economy and the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in today’s Federal Open Market Committee policy announcement.  “The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year... “ “The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses c

One of the most striking financial characteristics of the pandemic experience has been the seeming disconnect between the economy and the stock market. The economy was severely damaged by the lockdown of business and sheltering in place policies put in effect earlier this year, but until this week the market has been rising with more stocks  The unemployment rate which had fallen to 3.5% last year, the lowest level since 1969, skyrocketed with the lockdowns, reaching 14.7% in April, a level not seen since the Great Depression. Since then it’s fallen, to a still elevated 7.9 % in September, the last report before the election.  How sound are the economy and markets going into the election? What could change? Joining us with some answers this week will be financial thought leader, Jason Trennert. Trennert is co-founder, Chairman, CEO, and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas, He says the wide policy differences between Biden and Trump call for different portfolio strategies post-election.  W

COVID-19 reminded us that life-changing “Black Swan” events don’t just happen once in a century. They are an ongoing reality.  In the last twenty years, we have lived through 9/11, the global financial crisis, and now a global pandemic with the unintended consequence of rolling economic lockdowns.  On an investment level, all of these events have delivered a sharp hit to financial markets from which they have recovered. Such is the resilience and strength of the U.S. capital markets and the underlying economy.  But on a personal finance level, the impact of these events can be much more damaging and long-lasting, particularly for individuals nearing retirement or in it,  which is why we asked this week’s guest to join us. Clients in those vulnerable years are his focus.  Our guest this week is Mark Cortazzo, a certified financial planner, Founder, and Senior Partner of MACRO Consulting Group an independent wealth management firm. We asked Cortazzo to walk us through the conversa

Are we in the midst of a new economic expansion and secular bull market? Those are the signals from ClearBridge Investments’ Recovery Dashboard. Investment Strategist Jeff Schulze takes us through the indicators flashing green.  WEALTHTRACK #1716A published on October 21, 2020. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/new-economic-expansion/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

One extraordinary characteristic of this pandemic period has been stock market performance. A recent Wall Street Journal headline captures it perfectly: “Turbocharged stocks blast off.”  In its third-quarter market’s review, the Journal points out that “more stocks skyrocketed at least 400% in the first three quarters of the year than in any comparable period since 2000.” This is not a tide that is lifting all boats, anything but. The overwhelming majority of the winners are tech or biotech-related.  Whether value’s short-lived outperformance will continue is of particular interest to this week’s guest. She is Sarah Ketterer, Chief Executive Officer of Causeway Capital Management. The combination of its deep value and international focus has proven to be challenging in this era of high performing tech and U.S. centric stocks, but Ketterer and her colleagues now call this a value investor’s dream market as more high quality, financially strong companies sell at “shockingly” cheap valuations.  Ke

How surprised have you been by the market’s supercharged recovery from the March lows and the economy’s rebound from the COVID trough? By any measure, the snapback has been extraordinary. The shortest bear market in U.S. history, a mere 33 weeks from late February to late March, and a much faster recovery than expected.   As this week’s guest, Nancy Lazar told clients recently: “In the last expansion it took almost 9 years (until 2018) for unemployment to fall to 4.0%. Today the Fed expects (more likely wishes) to see 4.0% just 4 years into this expansion. And since this cycle’s Drivers are leveraged to the Fed’s main policy tool - interest rates - the Fed’s in a good position to make it happen.”   We will discuss why she is optimistic about the economy’s progress based on some unappreciated and under-reported trends she and her team have been tracking both pre-pandemic and now. Be prepared for a fascinating and different analysis of the U.S. economy and why its recovery powers are so strong. WEALT

“Don’t fight the Fed” has become an accepted Wall Street adage. It’s a phrase coined by Martin Zweig, a legendary technical analyst, and investor who predicted the 1987 market crash to the day and was the author of the 1970 investment classic Winning On Wall Street.  Zweig wrote that “The monetary climate - primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy - is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction.” Fast forward 50 years and “Don’t fight the Fed” is very much alive. This week’s guest has been following that dictum during his 40-year investment career.  He says we are in the midst of a Fed-induced market melt-up right now. He is Ed Yardeni, a respected Ph.D. economist, strategist, and Fed watcher who leads  Yardeni Research, a global investment strategy firm he founded in 2007. A prolific writer, publishing a detailed daily Morning Briefing and comprehensive What I am Reading list, he is also the author of a new book,  Fed Watching for Fun and

How do you successfully take over and run a legendary fund with a 60-year track record of excellence? We are about to find out this week in a rare interview with a fund manager who is doing just that.  The fund is the T. Rowe Price New Horizons Fund.  The small-cap growth fund has 34 billion dollars in assets and carries a Five-Star, Silver Analyst rating from Morningstar. Prior to taking over the fund, Spencer established his own record of excellence with the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund which he ran from 2012 until early in 2019. During his tenure the fund delivered nearly 22% annualized returns, far outdistancing its benchmark and peer group. What does New Horizons’ legacy mean to Spencer? How is he changing it? We’ll find out.  WEALTHTRACK #1713 originally broadcast on September 25, 2020. More info: https://wealthtrack.com/next-generation-great-investor-josh-spencer-on-taking-over-t-rowe-prices-new-horizons-fund/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wealthtrack/support

COVID-19 has thrown a monkey wrench into many retirement plans as millions of Americans were thrown out of work and many were forced to tap into retirement accounts to pay the bills.   The experience has made Social Security benefits even more valuable to potential and current retirees.  According to Social Security expert Mary Beth Franklin, they account for half or more of total income for 50% of married couples and 70% of unmarried individuals.  They are the only source of guaranteed income for life for most Americans, and they have the added bonus of adjusting for inflation, thus protecting purchasing power.  Mary Beth Franklin joins us to discuss how to make the most of Social Security benefits.  Franklin is an acknowledged expert on this topic.      She has written that deciding when and how to claim Social Security benefits is one of the most important decisions that retirees will ever make. In this week’s show, I asked her how the pandemic is affecting thos

COVID-19 has affected just about every aspect of our lives:  our jobs, our health, our family and social interactions, children’s education, and leisure time.  But what has it done to retirement prospects? Not surprisingly, it has hurt them.  According to a survey of American workers with qualified retirement savings accounts, “...almost half (49%)  had experienced a reduction in work income through job loss, or decrease in hours and/or a pay cut”. Also, “...workers who lost their jobs or experienced a drop in income due to the COVID-19 pandemic were at least twice as likely to take money from their qualified retirement savings accounts as those who weren’t impacted.”    Retirement plans for older workers are particularly stressed. Not only do they have less time to make up any shortfalls, but seniors are more at risk from COVID-19 than younger people, so returning to work is more problematic.   According to the Urban Institute, the combined rate of unemployment and und

All The Reasons To Be Bullish - This Week on WEALTHTRACKRemember the discussions about the shape of the economic recovery? Would it be a “V”, a “W”, or maybe even a hockey stick? The jury might still be out about the economy, but as far as the markets are concerned there is no question. V’s abound. The top five S&P 500 companies by market capitalization - Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google’s parent Alphabet, and Facebook - all but the last topping a trillion in market value, are sharply higher. It is no surprise to this week’s guest. Ed Yardeni turned bullish nearly to the day of the market turnaround. He and his team are now calling this a Fed-led meltup. They say it could turn into the Mother of All Meltups, what they jokingly refer to as MAMU if it continues. They would feel a lot better about its sustainability if the market had some sort of correction or consolidation. So far it hasn’t complied. Yardeni is a Ph.D. economist, long time Fed watcher, and investment strategist who is widely followed by ins

One of the biggest issues to emerge from the pandemic is income inequality. It has become even more pronounced as millions of low-income workers lose their jobs and the much smaller number of high-income workers keep theirs and benefit from a powerful bull market. This week’s guest is on a crusade to change this dynamic, by giving opportunities to lower-income individuals and their families to achieve economic success. He is Great Value Investor and Financial Thought Leader Joel Greenblatt. He has a new book Common Sense: The Investor’s Guide To Equality, Opportunity, and Growth and like Thomas Paine who successfully campaigned against the monarchical and tyrannical rule of Great Britain over the 13 colonies in 1776 with his widely-read pamphlet Common Sense, Greenblatt is on a crusade to disrupt the established order in a few key areas including education, corporate hiring, taxation, and immigration. One area ripe for disruption is the education system which he says is “unfair, unequal and doesn’t make sense

We are in a rolling economic crisis right now, subject to the vagaries of the advance or retreat of the COVID-19 virus.  It is an ever-changing scenario with stark winners and losers. The economy contracted at an annualized rate of 32.9% in the second quarter, the sharpest decline in the 70 plus years of GDP tracking. After several weeks of improvement, jobless claims for first-time unemployment benefits rose for the second week in a row. 17 million Americans are now collecting unemployment benefits. So far, the markets have been betting on COVID’s retreat and global economic recovery with big tech leading the way. How to handle these extremes as investors? As we have so many times in the past, on this week’s WEALTHTRACK we are calling upon a veteran investor to give us perspective and investment advice.  https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznI5J0QOR3ONLK1lo5WTgjA5c3hAGHAt We’ll hear from great investor Hersh Cohen, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Clearbridge Investments. With more th

Safe haven investments are hard to find these days, which is why we need them more than ever. We are faced with risks we haven’t experienced in living memory. A truly global and spreading pandemic, rolling government lockdowns, unprecedented involvement in securities markets by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and massive stimulus from governments with payments to individuals and businesses. Normally when corporate and government debt soars to record levels bond markets get nervous, bond prices fall and interest rates rise as investors worry about getting paid back. Not in today's environment. The Fed has essentially pledged to keep short-term interest rates near zero and backstop numerous types of loans to prevent businesses from going bust and laying off workers. That assurance and the “don’t fight the Fed” adage seem to be enough for most fixed-income investors who continue to chase yield, driving bond prices up and interest rates down. Not this week’s guest. Tom Atteberry is a Portfolio Manage

There are a few moments in one’s lifetime when the geopolitical and economic backdrop truly changes. COVID-19 and its aftermath are one of those moments. I call it “The Pandemic Pivot”. The combined shocks of a highly contagious and in some cases deadly virus, global economic shutdown, rising populism, and global unrest are upending the old world order and introducing new disruptive dynamics yet to be fully realized. In the meantime each of us has to live our lives, do our work and plan and invest for the future as best we can. This week’s guest is one of them.  He is Matthew McLennan, a noted global manager, Head of the Global Value Team at First Eagle Investment Management Long before this crisis McLennan has been talking about emerging global geopolitical and financial risks. He says the pandemic has exposed a number of vulnerabilities that we will discuss, as well as how he is managing through them. One particularly interesting aspect of his strategy is a renewed emphasis on gold as a long term subst